Pick of the Week: SMU vs Florida State — Monday, September 7, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Spread: SMU -3 / FSU +3

ML: SMU -150 / FSU +125

Over/Under: 53.5

Pick of the Week: Florida State +3

SMU comes in ranked and carrying real College Football Playoff expectations, but this is a true road environment for a quarterback who has looked like a different player away from Dallas. Kevin Jennings completed 73% of his passes at home last season compared to just 58.9% on the road, with his passer rating dropping from 163.6 to 129.2 away from home. He also jammed his throwing hand in camp and missed practice time before this stretch, and while SMU says he's fully healthy heading into Week 1, Monday will be his first live test in a genuinely hostile road environment since it happened.

SMU's supporting cast is also a bigger question mark than its ranking suggests. The Mustangs are replacing 80% of last season's rushing production and 68.5% of their receiving yardage, meaning Jennings will be leaning on a largely rebuilt group of skill players for his first true road test of the year.

Florida State has its own answer to control this game: running backs Quintrevion Wisner and Ousmane Kromah give Norvell a real ground-game punch, and Kromah flashed it immediately in the season opener with 15 touches for 122 yards and a touchdown. A team that can establish the run keeps the game inside a field goal, and Florida State has done exactly that as a home underdog before — the Seminoles covered as a home dog last season and are 5-2 ATS at Doak Campbell overall.

Bottom Line: Jennings faces his first real road test of the year behind a retooled group of skill players, against a Florida State team with the ground game to keep this close. Lean Florida State +3.

Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.