MLB (2 Picks)
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8:05pm est: PHI/CHC Over 8.5 (3 Units)
Aaron Nola takes the bump for PHI and he's struggled away from Home. He has a 5.17 Road ERA in 2023 and has allowed at least 4 ER in 5 straight Road Starts. He made 1 start at Wrigley in 2022 and 1 in 2021, sure enough he allowed 4 ER in each start. He owns a lifetime 5.23 ERA in 5 career starts at Wrigley Field.
He also faces a red hot Cubs offense. Since June 13th they're averaging 6.58 Runs per game (12 Games). Ranger Suarez was able to silence them yesterday but he might just be the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. He's closing out June with a 1.08 ERA across 5 starts. Going back the past week+ this Cubs offense has scored 1, 5, 9, 8, 4, and 8 Runs.
Drew Smyly starts for CHC and contrary to Nola, he struggles at home. He has a 4.17 ERA across 7 starts at Wrigley Field. He's allowed 5 ER in back to back Home Starts and surrendered 3 Long balls in his most recent. Philly happens to have the 4th most homeruns vs LHP this season. Smyly has also struggled in June with a BA against of .289 and WHIP of 1.68.
This Phillies offense is also turning it on. They've scored 5+ in 3 of their last 4 games. The one time they didn't was against Max Scherzer. Despite facing MadMax they've still had at least 12 batters successfully reach base in each of the last 4 games.
Neither of these bullpens are very good either. They're tied for 20th with 4.14 ERA's. If either pitcher struggles early and they're forced to go to the bullpen there won't be good arms coming in to replace them.
8:40pm est: Rockies ML +175 (4 Units)
Michael Grove starts for the Dodgers and he's been terrible. He has a career 6.16 ERA (15 Games, 12 Starts) and a 7.59 ERA in 2023 (8 appearances). In his 6 starts this year he has a 7.96 ERA . His first start of the season came against Colorado, 3 ER in 4 IP at Home. He also faced the Rockies in his final start of 2022 and gave up 4 ER in 5 IP at Home. Now he pitches at Coors Field for the first time in his career and it's a warm hitters day.
Talked about it yesterday but the Dodgers bullpen is also terrible. If the bottom half of that bullpen gets rolled out early the Rockies are going to get numerous chances to score. They did yesterday following Kershaw's gem. Bottom 7th they had Men at the corners with 1 Out but Elias Diaz Grounded into a Double Play. Then in the Bottom of the 9th they had the bases juiced and Diaz hit a 390ft Flyout to end the inning against the Dodgers closer.
The Rockies bats can hit at Home, their .274 BA ranks 4th and their .781 OPS ranks 7th. It's a large reason why they're 18-21 at Home despite being 19 games below .500 on the year.
Kyle Freeland starts for COL and unlike most, he's been good at Coors. We backed him and highlighted this in his most recent start vs the Angels. CLICK HERE to revisit that analysis. Freeland owns a 3.42 ERA at Coors but if you exclude the one outlier against PIT (7 ER in 2.2 IP) he has a 2.22 Home ERA. He also has a decent 4.33 ERA against the Dodgers over the last 2 years (9 Starts). The LAD's offense of 2021 and 2022 were much better than their current.
*If a Pitcher posted 6IP and 3ER in every start he'd have a 4.5 ERA
He also has an elite top half of the Rockies bullpen just waiting to get used whenever he's done. They got the night off again yesterday but still recorded 12 outs while allowing just 1 ER.
The Dodgers offense came through with a couple big hits yesterday but they're still hitting just .215 over the last week as well as the last 15 days. The Dodgers hit .270 with a .777 OPS vs Freeland last year but the Good News, 21 of those 30 Hits aren't in the lineup today. In 2021 he held the LAD to a .240 BA and .643 OPS. This is also the first time the Dodgers have faced Freeland in 2023, which is always a plus.