MLB (3 Picks)
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6:40pm est: ATL/CIN Over 11 (3 Units)
AJ Smith-Shawver has had success at the big league level but that's bound to come to an end sooner rather than later and today's the perfect spot for it. He was thrust through the system and brought to the MLB level uncharacteristically fast. He has just 2 career starts at AA and 2 Career starts at AAA. All of which came this year. In 2022 he posted a 5.11 ERA in 17 Starts at Single A.
He came on in relief and threw 2.1 scoreless innings in his debut vs AZ. He then made his fist career start vs WSH and allowed 2 Runs (0 Earned) over 5.1 IP. Then in his most recent start he went 5.2IP allowing 3 ER vs Colorado. Both of his starts came at home and were both friendly matchups. Now he must go into one of the most hitter friendly ballparks and face the hottest team in baseball. Only his own Atlanta Braves have a higher OPS over the past week.
Luke Weaver has a 10.13 ERA through 3 June Starts. In June Opponents are hitting .356 off of him and he has a WHIP of 2.18. His GO/AO ratio is .71 on the season but down to .45 in June. Meaning a lot of hard hit balls in the air and that spells trouble at one of the easiest ballparks to leave and even more so against the #1 offense in the game. His ERA when pitching at home sits at 7.27.
Good warm weather with high humidity and light winds blowing out to CF today. Ball will carry a bit. Over's also hit in 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two.
7:07pm est: A's ML +250 (2 Units)
James Kaprielian has a 2.6 ERA through 3 June Starts. After struggling to begin the season and being set back to down to AAA to recover his form, he's actually pitched quite well. He's made 2 road starts during that span, allowing just 2 ER over 11IP. He's flashed elite potential before and has the stuff for it. He was the 16th overall pick back in 2015. Last year he posted a 1.93 ERA in June and again flashed with a 2.37 ERA in September. His command is an issue at times. He did face Toronto last year and held them to 1 ER over 6 Innings. Blue Jays offense has scored 3 or less in 6 of their last 8 games too.
Value really comes in with Chris Bassitt's struggles. In his most recent start he gave up 5 Runs (3 Earned) on just 3.2 innings of work. He allowed 7 Hits and walked 3. The Start before that he surrendered 8 ER on just 3 IP. He allowed 11 Hits, walked 1, and 3 Homeruns. Bassitt also spent 2015-2021 in an A's uniform. They're more than familiar with him.
The Athletics bullpen is statistically the worst in baseball and they leave a lot to be desired. They do however have a few respectable arms and with the day off yesterday they'll be available if Kap can turn in a quality start.
8:40pm est: Rockies ML +135 (3 Units)
Sandoval just turned in a fine start at KC after struggling in his last two but that's what happens when you face the Royals. The start prior he gave up 5 ER in 5 Innings at home vs SEA and the game before that he gave up 6 ER over 3.1 IP in Houston. He still issued 5 Free Passes against KC and that's been a theme for Sandoval on the Road.
He's issued 24 free passes on 35.2 IP on the Road compared to just 8 through 35 at Home. His WHIP sits at 1.4 when pitching at home but just 1.43 when on the road despite that discrepancy. He's just had a favorable road schedule thus far and kept the hits allowed down. 3 of his 7 road starts came against the 25th, 28th, and 30th ranked offenses. If you exclude those and look at his 4 other starts: Just 16 IP, 14 Runs allowed, 18 Hits, and 15 Walks. The Rockies have always been able to hit at the friendly confines of Coors Field and this years no different. They're currently hitting .278 with a .790 OPS at Home (5th Best). Sandoval has also never pitched at Coors Field before. There's a learning curve.
Kyle Freeland starts for COL and he's been pretty much lights out at Home. He has a 3.19 ERA (8 Starts) at Coors Field and that's heavily inflated by one poor performance. He's allowed 2 ER or less in 6 of his 8 Home starts, 3 In another, then 7 vs the Pirates back on April 17th. If you exclude the outlier against PIT he has a 1.82 ERA at Home this season. Angels are hitting a measly .211 in their last 4 games and have been recently decimated by injury. Half of their lineup belongs in the Minors.
The Rockies had off yesterday so there's a quality bullpen ready to back him up. They've pitched extremely well over the last couple of weeks but unfortunately for COL the starters haven't been up to par. Kyle Freeland is the highest paid Rocky and leader in that clubhouse. They need a good start to stop a losing streak and he's the man for the job.
