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Major League Players Club MLB (6/24/23)

MLB (2 Picks)


4:10pm est: Reds ML +110 (3 Units)

Jared Shuster has a 4.57 ERA and a 5.4 Road ERA. Like yesterday's ATL Starter, he's seen fortunate scheduling. 4 of his 8 starts came against offenses ranked 21st or below and then another start came at home against Colorado. The Rockies are the 27th ranked road offense. In the 3 other starts, 3 ER in 4 IP vs SD, 3 ER in 5 IP vs TEX, 3 ER in 5.2 IP vs PHI. Now he faces his toughest test against a scorching hot Reds lineup. Hitting conditions are even more favorable than yesterdays and you saw what happened there.

Graham Ashcraft returns from the IL today. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball through his first 6 starts but that unraveled quickly. His ERA currently sits at 6.78. The time off should do some good. If you look back to last year (Rookie Season) he's following a similar path. He has the arsenal to be a front end starter but struggles with command. Last year he opened up with 4 great starts. Then stunk in 3 of the next 4. Then pitched great for 8 straight. Stunk for his final 3. Streaky pitcher. He doesn't need to be phenomenal, he just needs to be alright. And he's more than capable of turning in a decent start before passing it off to a strong bullpen. With the additional rest and time to recoup we like him to have a decent outing.

Even if he doesn't, Luke Weaver allowed 5 ER in 3.1 IP and the Reds still managed to win that game. They're the hottest team in baseball, rolling off 12 straight.

8:40pm est: Nats ML +165 (3 Units)

Josiah Gray hasn't been as sharp as he was to start the year but he's still been damn good on the Road. He has a 2.73 road ERA across 9 starts. In his most recent road start we completed 7 innings allowing 4 ER vs Houston. Fell into some tough luck. Hit By Pitch followed up by an infield single that left the bat at 40.4 MPH before Abreu doubled them both in with 2 outs. Abreu would later hit a Solo HR as would Yainer Diaz. That was the first time this year he allowed more than 3 ER in a road start. He's also allowed 3 ER on the road just once, every other road start has been 2ER or Less.

He's made 1 career start vs SD, it came at Petco Park and he held them to just 1 ER. The Padres bats had been struggling for a while but have come alive in their last couple but the Verdict is still out. They've run into some very sub par pitching. In fact, these types of scenarios can work against an offense. It's like hitting at Triple A for a few days then being called up to the Majors again. WSH SP Josiah Gray has great stuff too.

Value really comes in because of SD SP Matt Waldron. The 26 year old is making his MLB debut and under regular circumstances it wouldn't happen. He posted an 8.44 ERA at Triple A in 2022 and has a 7.02 ERA in Triple A so far in 2023. He's actually a Knuckleballer, first time the majors will see once since 2021. He's allowed at least 5 ER in 4 of his last 6 minor league starts though. Michael Wacha got his start pushed back due to soreness so Waldron is the filler.

The Padres bullpen is in decent shape and they have a scheduled day off for Sunday so they won't push Woldron too far. Nats bats will get a chance to jump ahead early though. They are hitting .275 over the last week.


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