Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/10/25)

MLB

4 Picks (14 Units).

4:05PM EST: Nationals ML -105 (3 Units).

LP: A. Pallante (STL) / T. Williams (WSH).

Pallante has a 5.66 ERA in 4 road starts this season. He's allowed 4 runs in a couple, 3 runs in another, and 2 runs in his first road start of the season but that was on 4.1 IP. Washington has a more than respectable offense, ranking 6th in BA and 8th in OPS at Home. They’re also 7th in stolen bases this year. WSH SP Trevor Williams continues to fall victim to weak contact. The difference between his ERA (5.86) and xERA (3.7) is the largest in baseball among starters. That will start to even out. He has a good Washington defense behind him. Their fielding % is .988 and they're tied 3rd in errors per game. Arizona led all of baseball with a .989 fielding % last season. We point this out because Trevor Williams isn't a high strikeouts guy. The Nats defense will pick him up soon enough.

6:10PM ESTL Rangers/Tigers Under 7.5 (3 Units).

LP: J. deGrom (TEX) / J. Flaherty (DET).

TEX SP Jacob deGrom isn't quite his old self, but he has a 2.61 ERA with a 2.65 xERA. He's still very good and has allowed just 4 runs in his last 4 starts combined. They've been careful with his pitch count and as such he's completed 6 innings just twice. The Rangers bullpen isn't great but only 1 reliever has thrown more than once in the last 5 days. It was Robert Garcia who's had the last two nights off and threw a combined 18 pitches between Tuesday and Wednesday. Texas has lost 3 straight, and this is an ideal spot to use their best arms.

DET SP Jack Flaherty has a 1.59 ERA in 3 Home Starts this year. Dating back to last season (First half with DET) he's allowed 3 runs or less in 9 straight home starts for Detroit. He has a career 3.15 ERA in 11 starts at Comerica Park. He's backed by the best bullpen in baseball and AJ Hinch can call on anybody tonight. These two teams combined for just 6 hits last night. Detroit's offense swung it well at Coors but it's fairly common for teams to struggle offensively immediately after a Coors Field trip.

7:10PM EST: Reds ML +115 (5 Units).

LP: B. Singer (CIN) / L. McCullers (HOU).

Brady Singer's 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA through 7 starts this year. He allowed 4 ER on 6 IP at Atlanta his last time out. Atlanta scored a pair of runs on an inside the park Homerun on what should have been ruled a catch and the 3rd out of the inning. Regardless he's pitched very well this season, and he's had success against Houston. In 60 career plate appearances against Singer the Astros are batting .211 with a .255 wOBA. He has a career 2.45 ERA at Minute Maid Park.

HOU SP Lance McCullers made his 2025 debut last week, tossing 3.2 scoreless innings in Chicago against the White Sox. It was his first MLB appearance since 2022. He allowed 3 hits, 3 walks, and had 1 HBP. It also required 87 pitches. He came away from that start with an xERA of 5.84 and 50% of balls put in play were hit hard. If the White Sox bats are squaring you up, anyone can. Going to take McCullers some time to feel comfortable out there again given his injuries and extended absence.

8:10PM EST: Padres/Rockies Over 11.5 (3 Units).

LP: S. Kolek (SD).

Stephen Kolek tossed 5.1 shutout innings against the Pirates in his first career start. He has a career 4.61 ERA in the Minor Leagues, a 6.38 ERA in 5 AAA starts this year, and had a 5.21 ERA in 42 relief appearances for the Padres last season. He also got blasted for 6 and 7 runs in his two AAA road starts this year. He isn't an MLB pitcher and won't be up here for long. The Rockies offense hasn't been great but they're at Home at Coors. They managed to put up 9 runs yesterday and 7 of them came against a very good Padres bullpen. Kolek made a couple of relief appearances at Coors field last year, giving up 1 ER on 3 hits and 2 walks on 1.1 IP. COL SP Brady Blalock has a 8.03 ERA through 4 games (2 starts). He has a 9.0 ERA at Home and had a 6.52 ERA in a pair of Home starts in 2024. In 3 AAA starts this season he had a 6.48 ERA. There are simply two minor league pitchers starting this game in the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball with good hitting weather.