MLB (1 Pick)
Detroit Tigers ML +155 (4 Units)
Justin Verlander is making his first start of 2023. He went to the IL after a Teres Major strain (Shoulder) on April 28th. He’s made just 1 Rehab start, throwing 69 pitches down at Double A. He gave up a couple hits and walked 1 in 4.2 IP. Back in spring training he gave up 5 ER in his final 2 spring starts (9.2 IP). This is a 40-year-old man coming off an injury with just 1 rehab start.
He wasn’t too sharp in that Rehab start, just pitching against inferior talent. The Tigers are swinging the bats well. Hitting .276 with a .781 OPS in their last 5 games. They just took both games of yesterday’s double header vs the Mets, scoring 6 and 8 runs. They tagged Scherzer for 6 runs and chased him out of the game in the 4th inning. Even if Verlander is wolverine and is sharp in his return, his pitch count will be limited. He’s not going to be able to go very deep unless he’s incredibly efficient.
The NYM bullpen is heavily taxed. They’ve played two double-headers this week, Monday, and Wednesday. Their Pens been forced to record 19 of 34 outs. 291 pitches thrown in those 4 games. They only got 7.1 IP from their two starters in yesterday’s game too.
The Tigers SP is Eduardo Rodriguez and he’s been close to untouchable. He’s allowed just 2 ER in his last 4 starts (26.2 IP). A .69 ERA during that span and he just made back-to-back starts against the Orioles. It’s never easy to navigate the same lineup twice, especially when it’s a top 5 lineup vs Left-Handed Pitching. This Mets offense is hitting just .237 with a .305 OBP through their last 5 games.
Back to bullpen availability, the Tigers are in an excellent spot. They have 4 relievers pitching very well. T. Holton: 1.69 ERA, A. Lange: 1.32 ERA, J. Foley: 1.32 ERA, W. Vest: 0.0 ERA. Those 4 pitched the 5-shutout innings in yesterday’s double header but they all had two days off going into it. They are all available again today if needed.
The Mets are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. They’re also 1-5 their last 6 meetings in Detroit and 3-9 L12 vs DET overall.