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7:10pm est: Reds Moneyline +145 (3 Units)
Right back to the well. Luke Weaver is fresh off his best start of 2023. He threw 6.1 shutout innings against the Cardinals and needed just 86 pitches to do it. The start prior he allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP to the Yankees, but he held MIA to 1 Run on 5.1 IP the start before that. His changeup has been devastating recently. His season ERA sits at 5.45 but his xERA is down at 4.3.
We highlighted the Red Sox offensive struggles last night and that mostly continued. They scored 3 runs on Fernando Cruz who was making his 26th career MLB appearance, then 5 Runs against Eduardo Salazar who was making his 3rd MLB appearance. Those guys don’t pitch in a close competitive game. The Reds just had a very commanding lead. Unfortunately, Alexis Diaz was forced to come in and make his 13th save but he threw just 12 pitches and had the day off on Monday, so he’ll be available again today. Along with the rest of Cinci’s top relief options.
James Paxton starts for the Red Sox and he just got shelled for 5 Runs in 3 innings of work against the Angels in his last start. He gave up 4 Hits, walked 3, and allowed 2 Homeruns. He’s allowed a homerun in every start. The Reds offense continued to shine yesterday, throwing up 9 Runs on Boston. They gave BOS Starter Brayan Bello such a hard time he threw 97 pitches in just 4 innings. He escaped damage as he allowed just 1 ER however. The Reds went 1 for 15 and left 11 guys on base yesterday and still managed to score 9 runs.
They’re also better vs Left-Handed pitching. They hit .280 with an OPS of .771 vs LHP compared to .248 and .709 vs RHP. They just blasted the then 3rd ranked ERA Leader in the NL Justin Steele for 5 ER on Friday. It was easily the Southpaws worst start of 2023. Recently called up Matt McLain has punished lefties too, hitting .444 and slugging .778.
9:40pm est: Rockies ML +140 (3 Units)
Dinelson Lamet gets another shot with the Rockies. After a 15 Day IL stint he returned to AAA as a starter. The Rockies rotation’s been decimated by injury and underproduction. He’s primarily been used in the bullpen the past few years, but he has a career 3.78 ERA in 56 starts. Health has always been his issue, the reason he was forced into bullpen duties. He’s made 3 starts at AAA, allowing just 1 ER. Good for a .84 ERA, .171 BA Against, .66 WHIP. He’s also tallied 11 strikeouts in 10.2 IP. He’s stretched out for around 70 pitches. Ideally the Rockies get 5 innings out of him.
Backing him up is a very top-heavy bullpen. We’ve touched on that numerous times. Bard, Hand, Lawrence, Bird, and Suter are all ready to rock. Jake Bird and Suter are both good for multiple innings. They’ve done it on numerous occasions this year and they haven’t pitched since Sunday. This D-Backs offense ranks 23rd over the last week too. They jumped Freeland for 3 Runs in the first inning yesterday but were rather quiet the rest of the day in their 5-1 win.
Tommy Henry starts for AZ. He’s posted a 4.68 ERA in 6 starts. He did just make a relief appearance on May 27th. He only threw 10 pitches in 1.1 IP but he’s off schedule. He made 1 start vs COL earlier this year and gave up 4 ER in 5.1 IP @ COL. Coors Field is a tough Venue to pitch in but when the Roofs open at Chase Field like it is today, it plays close to Coors.
The Rockies bats have been hot recently. .332 AVG, .397 OBP, and .551 SLG over their last 6 games. That’s despite scoring just 1 Run on 8 hits last night. The Diamondback Ace, Zac Gallen, was able to keep Colorado off the board. The Rockies went 0-8 with RISP and left 9 guys on base. They weren’t without opportunities.
The D-Backs bullpen also ranks 17th with a 4.13 ERA. Scott McGough, who’s been one of their most reliable relievers will be unavailable after throwing 40 pitches yesterday and 73 Total in their last 4 days. This is a bullpen that’s just 15 for 26 with save opportunities. The advantage is with the Rockies once this flips to the bullpens.