MLB (1 Pick)
SF Giants ML +140 (3 Units)
Logan Webb has been pitching very well. He has a 3.1 ERA in his last 4 starts and has pitched at least 6 innings in everyone. His ERA should be better as he’s fallen victim to some tough luck on weak contact. The Giants bullpen has also been terrible this season, so he’s been forced to pitch deeper. 4 of the 9 ER he’s allowed in his last 4 starts have come in the 7th inning. SF got a gem of a start from DeSclafani last night though. He went 8 Innings and reset the Giants bullpen.
Taylor Rogers hasn’t allowed an ER in 8 appearances, Tyler Rogers has allowed just 1 ER this season outside of the Mexico City homerun derby series, and Doval has a 3.0 ERA and is 4 for 5 on Save opportunities. His one blown save came in Mexico City against SD. The few good bullpen arms SF has are available to backup Webb in this one.
The Astros lineup has also been terrible. They rank dead last with an OPS of .535 in the last week and are hitting just .196. 5 of their batters in today’s lineup are hitting .176 or below during that span. Not including those 5; Hensley is 1 for his last 28. Maldonaldo is 3 for his last 21. Yordan Alverez has continued to do his thing with an OPS of 1.000 but he has no RBIs to show for it. Then Jeremy Pena’s hitting .263. HOU is averaging just 2.3 runs per game through their last 6 and have scored 1 or less in 4 of them.
HOU SP Framber Valdez has been solid, but he hasn’t been nearly as sharp as he can be. He’s given up 3 ER in back-to-back starts, allowing 8 hits in each. He also allowed 5 Runs in the start prior to those 2 but just 1 was earned. He has an xERA of 4.59 and ranks in the bottom 8% of the league in average exit Velo. He allows a hard-hit ball 47.7% of the time.
He’s allowed 3 Homeruns in his last 2 and that’s how the Giants do their damage. They rank 3rd in baseball, averaging 1.66 homeruns per game. They also play in a very pitcher friendly ballpark at home. They’re tied with the Rays for most homeruns when playing on the road. EXCLUDING the two games played in Mexico City (Incredibly hitter friendly) they’re averaging just over 4 runs per game in their last 8.
Weather conditions are Homer friendly. 84° with 9MPH blowing out to Left Center. Humidity is up at 45% and the humid air is lighter than standard air. Meaning the ball faces less resistance as it travels through the Air. Yordan Alverez is also playing in Left Field. He isn’t a great Fielder and usually fills the DH spot.