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Major League Players Club MLB (5/1/23)

MLB (2 Picks)

Make sure you’re following the Unit instructions. They’re there for a reason. Currently up 50 Units on the year in 2023. Visit the Players Club page if you’re unsure how the Units work.

7:10pm est: Blue Jays -1.5 +105 (4 Units)

La Makina has returned. After a tough 2022 campaign (5.23 ERA in 32 starts), Berrios looks back to his old self. He’s allowed just 3 ER in his last 3 starts (19 IP). He blanked the White Sox in his last start while striking out 9. He turned the corner against the best team in baseball (TB), allowing just 1 ER while picking up the W. Been rolling since. And despite struggling with Toronto for most of his time there, he’s dominated Boston. Pitching to a 2.16 ERA in his 4 starts vs the Sox. The Red Sox had a team OPS of just .650 vs Berrios in 2022.

Corey Kluber has a 6.75 ERA through 5 starts in 2023. He’s made 3 Starts at Fenway this year, giving up 13 ER in 13.1 IP. He has a Career ERA of 4.75 at Fenway Park too. Since joining the AL East (NYY 2021, TB 2022, BOS 2023) he has an ERA of 6.43 against the Blue Jays. He’s made 5 starts during that time and has never completed 5 Innings.

Toronto’s had Boston’s number too, winning 21 of their last 26 head-to-head meetings and they’ve also won 8 straight in Boston. The Blue Jays top relievers are available after getting the day off yesterday too.

9:40pm est: Reds ML +190 (2 Units)

Luke Weaver’s had an up and down career. He has a 4.87 ERA in 117 career games but has racked up 478 strikeouts in 462.1 IP. He has a 7.71 ERA in 2 starts so far but his xERA is at 5.73. He allowed 4 ER in 6 IP against the Pirates in his first start but all 4 came in the first inning. Then he allowed 6 ER in 5.2 IP while pitching at home (most hitter friendly park in MLB) against the Rangers, who average the 2nd most runs per game. He has 8 strikeouts in each game. The last time he was a full-time starter he was pitching to a 4.25 ERA for AZ before getting injured 13 starts in.

He's more than capable of providing a quality start. The Padres just played their last couple games in Mexico City too. The field was essentially Coors Field on steroids. What would usually be a routine fly ball, found its way over the wall. There was 15 Homeruns hit in 2 games. Players know that and swing for it. They struck out 13 times in yesterday’s game and are tied for 7th with the most strikeouts in 2023. Could see a little bit of a hangover for the Padres offense here.

The value comes in from Blake Snell. He’s been surviving lately. He’s gone 5 innings in 3 straight starts, allowing 3, 2, and 2 Earned runs. He has a 5.48 ERA in 2023 but an xERA of 7.07. He’s walked 13 batters in those last 3 starts and 17 in 18.2IP through the month of April. He has a WHIP of 1.87 but teams haven’t been able to come through with the big hit just yet. Toting that line for too long is a dangerous game.

The Reds bats are hot. They’re hitting .314 with a .843 OPS in the last week. Every one of their best bats vs Left-Handed Pitching are hitting extremely well too. In the last week there’s 4 Guys with an OPS north of 1.000, 6 batters hitting over .300, 9 guys with an OBP higher than .350.

The Reds bullpen also ranks 12th with a respectable 3.55 ERA. The Padres rank 22nd with a 4.43 ERA. This lines off, good value on the Reds today.

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