MLB (2 Picks)
2:10pm est: TOR/KC Under 8 (2 Units)
Kevin Gausman hasn’t allowed an earned run since 2022. He didn’t allow one in 13.2 IP through spring training, and he didn’t allow one in his opening day start. He pitched to a 3.35 era in 2022 but that dropped to 2.3 when pitching on the road. The Royals bats have been exceptionally bad. They’re dead last hitting .155 with an OPS of .519. They’ve scored just 14 runs through 6 games. 32-year-old catcher Salvadore Perez slides in at DH today. A day game following a night game is a near guaranteed day off for the catcher. That’s a negative for a Royals line-up that usually gets the benefit of + hitting from the catcher position.
Jordan Lyles discovered something in Baltimore last year and that’s carried over. He pitched to a 3.47 era when pitching at home last year and he’s off to another strong start in 2023. His first start of the year came at home vs MIN. He allowed just 1 earned run through 5.1 IP. He was also very sharp in spring training, allowing 4 ER in 13.1 IP, good for a 2.7 era. Toronto’s line-up hasn’t been all that productive either. They had a great opening day, scoring 10 runs against STL but since then they’re averaging just over 3.5 runs per game. 3 of those games came against these Royals too, not like it’s been elite pitching or anything.
Kauffman stadium is a top 10 pitcher friendly ballpark, temperatures will be in the mid 50’s, and the winds blowing in today.
7:20pm est: Braves Runline -1.5 (+130) (3 Units)
Blake Snell hasn’t been nearly as consistent as the Padres would have hoped when they traded for him a few years ago. If you recall, we went against him on opening day. He took the loss allowing 3 ER in 4.1 IP. He had a 5.63 era through the spring too. This Braves line-up excels vs LH pitching, they ranked 3rd in 2022 with an OPS of .782. They’re currently hitting .301 with an OPS of .803 vs LH pitching in 2023. Left or right they’re hitting .280 with an OPS of .810. They’ve also had success vs Snell. Acuna 1 for 3 with a HR, Adrianza 4 for 6 with a HR, Albies 1 for 3, Ozuna 1 for 2, Pillar .381 BA in 21 at bats, Rosario 4 for 6.
ATL SP Spencer Strider is an up-and-coming Stud. He pitched to a 2.67 era in 2022 and shutout the Nationals in his first start of 2023. He had a 1.93 era in the spring too. There are 8 batters on the Padres with previous at bats vs Strider, they’re all hitless except for Juan Soto. He’s 1 for 4. The Padres line-up is hitting just .234 with an OPS of .750 through 6 games this season.
The Padres bullpen has been extremely underwhelming too. Their 5.95 era ranks 27th in the major leagues and they’re fresh off blowing two late leads. Their bats bailed them out in the first one, otherwise they’re sitting at 2-3 to start the young season.