MLB (2 Picks)
Big day in the NBA Playoffs!
7:20pm est: Braves Moneyline -105 (4 Units)
Framber Valdez is a very good pitcher, but he’s been fortunate this season. He has an xERA of 3.52 compared to his 1.8 ERA. He allows a hard-hit ball 44.8% of the time but every stat can be a bit misleading. He’s a ground ball pitcher, so that’s not as detrimental as it would be for a fly ball type of pitcher. He’s shown some kinks, walking 8 in his 3 April starts. He gave up 5 Runs vs Texas but only 1 was earned. He’s had control and walk issues in the past and nobody in baseball has a higher OBP vs LH pitching than the Atlanta Braves. They rank 4th in OPS vs LH pitching as well. They’ll be able to work him and Houston rolled out most of their best bullpen arms yesterday.
Kyle Wright has a 6.23 ERA but an xERA of 4.35. He’s made 2 starts in 2023, giving up 4 ER in his first and 2ER across 5.2 IP in his 2nd. He’s a good pitcher, in 2022 he had a 3.19 ERA in 30 starts. He racked up a league leading 21 wins. His ERA was also 2.86 when pitching at home. He’s only given up 9 hard hit balls, but the average launch angle is -4.7 degrees. Offensively the Astros aren’t anything special. They rank 16th on the season but do most of their damage vs Lefties. They rank 8th vs LHP but fall to 20th vs RHP. Wright just had a late start to the year because of a brief IL Stint with shoulder soreness at the end of spring. With 1 minor league appearance before these two, this marks his 4 start. He’s going to turn it on eventually.
8:10pm est: Padres/D-Backs Over 9.5 (3 Units)
Joe Musgrove’s making his first start of 2023. He’s back after recovering from a toe fracture. He’s made two minor league rehab starts. He gave up 6 Hits and 4 Earned Runs in Single A and then 5 Hits and 2 Earned Runs in Triple AAA. He hit 3 batters and walked 1 too. He’s a good pitcher when he’s on but it takes time to find the grove. Offensively the D-Backs continue to find ways to score runs. They put up 9 last night and have scored 5 or more in 6 straight games. Touched on it yesterday, they rake at home.
Merrill Kelly has been flat out lucky. 2.53 ERA but an xERA of 6.09. By far the largest margin amongst pitchers with 4 starts. Stat cast isn’t a perfect science, and some pitchers find it or lose it and they just end up lucky/unlucky. But last season the largest margin for season long starters was -1.26. The Padres offense has had their struggles but there’s a lot of bats in this lineup with great career numbers vs Kelly. Fernando Tatis being one of them. At some point they’re going to turn it on and this is a good spot.
Park conditions are great, Roofs open for this one and its 90+ and Sunny. That ball will be jumping off the bats today.
