MLB (2 Picks)
9:40pm est: Diamondbacks ML -105 (3 Units)
Zac Gallen has returned to his dominant ways. After a couple rough outings, he’s back to his 2022 form. He’s thrown back-to-back scoreless outings, racking up 18K’s in 13.2 IP. He has an xERA of 2.77 in 2023. His last poor start came against these Padres but that tends to work in an Ace’s favor. Very rarely does a Stud have back-to-back poor outings against the same team and Zack Gallen’s no exception. He allowed 4ER+ in 4 starts during 2022. 6 ER vs KC then shut them out, 4ER vs PHI then shut them out, 6ER vs SD then allowed 2 ER, and 4 ER vs COL then shut them out. The big first game tends to work against the offense as they get comfortable and familiar with a worse version of the pitcher’s stuff.
San Diego managed to score 7 Runs against the D-Backs last night but they still had just 7 hits. Their offense hasn’t been great. They rank 21st on the season and are hitting just .208 with a .621 OPS in their last 6 games. This is also their 15th straight game in as many days, no days off is never favorable.
We’ve touched on this previously, but Seth Lugo’s never been able to cement himself as a big-league starter. He’s making another run for it in San Diego and his first couple starts went well before he unraveled against Milwaukee. He has a 2.7 ERA but an xERA of 4.11. He let 10 guys reach base in 3.2 IP vs MIL but managed to allow just 3 ER. The D-Backs offense ranks in the Top 10 this past week and they’re loving Chase field. Hitting .299 with an .830 OPS when playing at home. They put together 12 Hits vs the Padres last night, just didn’t get the big swing.
The Padres bullpen is taxed. Their closer Josh Hader is likely unavailable. He’s made back-to-back appearances and hasn’t gone 3 straight days in a regular season since 2021. Honeywell also unavailable after throwing 40 pitches yesterday. Tim Hill threw back-to-back days. The Padres bullpen nailed down a 1 run lead 2 days ago and a 2-run lead last night.
10:10pm est: Cardinals Moneyline +110 (3 Units)
Steven Matz hasn’t been great but he’s not 6.48 ERA bad. He’s usually good for a 4.0, not that that’s anything special but even those guys turn in good outings. His xERA is 5.44 but he had a couple of tough matchups to start the year. His first start came against ATL, the 3rd ranked offense vs LH pitching in 2023 as well as 2022. Then he went into Coors field where most pitchers tend to struggle. His most recent start was good, allowing 2 ER in 5.2 IP vs the Pirates. A red-hot Pirates offense that leads the league with an .894 OPS in the last week.
Today he gets a bad Mariners lineup. This is the 24th ranked offense hitting .224 on the season. They’re hitting just .200 in the past week, but the big ticket is vs LHP pitching. The Mariners hit just .194 vs Lefties, dead last in baseball. They ranked 24th vs LHP in 2022 too and 2 of their most productive LH hitting bats left town in the off-season.
George Kirby is the opposite of Steven Matz, getting some good matchups in 2023. He’s faced the 18th (LAA), 20th (COL), and 26th (CLE) ranked offenses. The Angels tagged him for 9 hits and 4 ER in his first start. He allowed 1 ER in 6IP vs CLE, then 2 ER at home in 6.2 IP vs Colorado. At home’s important because the Rockies may rank 20th on the year but they benefit greatly from Coors field. They rank 29th offensively away from home. Kirby’s xERA is 4.55 and his hard hit % is 39.6%.
He's up against the 3rd best offense in baseball tonight and they’re hot. This past week they have an OBP of .374 (1st) and an OPS of .857 (3rd). They scored 14 Runs in their last game and 7 the game before that.
