MLB (2 Picks)
7:05pm est: BAL/WSH Under 9 (3 Units)
BAL SP Dean Kremer has had a rough go in 2023. He has a 9.49 REA across 3 starts. He’s been absolutely crushed by the long ball, giving up 11 of his 13 ER via the HR. He allowed just 11HR’s in 125 innings of work in 2022. He’s allowed 5 through 12.1 IP in 2023. He also pitched to a 3.23 ERA in 2022. This is a good spot for him to turn it around. The Nationals rank 26th offensively, 27th in runs scored, and most importantly dead last with just 8 homeruns on the year. BAL also had the day off yesterday, so their full pen is at their disposal. Baltimore’s bullpen has a respectable 3.65 ERA and have more than a few arms pitching the lights out currently.
WSH SP Josiah Gray has been sharp. Allowing just 3 ER in his last 2 starts. He did struggle in his first start vs ATL, giving up 3 HR’s. He had a .55 ERA in 5 spring starts too. One bad day out of 8 in 2023. Like BAL the Nats also had the day off last night and have their bullpen ready to rock. Temperatures have also come down, sitting in the low 60’s for tonight’s game. Ball won’t be as lively as it’s been the last week that saw summer weather across the Country.
7:45pm est: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -105 (2 Units)
Arizona’s young SP has been fortunate this year. Drey Jameson has an xERA of 4.74 compared to his actual ERA of 1.46. He’s given up 15 Hard Hit balls in just 12.1 innings of work. His hard hit % allowed is up at 48.4. He had a 7.53 ERA through spring, and he’s never been impressive in the Minors. He has a career minor league ERA of 5.29 and that was 6.31 last year. He has a 6.95 ERA at AAA, the highest level in the Minors. He made his first and only start of 2023 last week vs MIL and went 4 innings. Backing up Jameson is a very top-heavy ARI bullpen. They have 4 guys with a sub 2.5 ERA this year, everyone else in the Pen is at 5.4 or above. If he exits early there aren’t great arms coming in to replace him.
