MLB (1 Pick)
1:05pm est: Phillies -1.5 (3 Units)
Aaron Nola has an xERA of 3.71 while his actual ERA is at 7.04. He had a rough first start against Texas but followed that up with a quality start against the Yankees. In his most recent start vs MIA he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP. He's pitched much better than his numbers indicate. He's allowing a hard it ball just 32.7% of the time. Compared to last season that's in the top 10% of pitchers. He averages a little over a strikeout per inning and he doesn't walk many batters. He issued just 29 walks in 205 Innings last season. Positive regression is coming for one the NL's top pitchers. He Faced Cinci once last year, he threw a complete game shutout.
Luis Cessa's fortunate to have a 7.00 ERA as his xERA is up at 11.79 (bottom 1%). He's been one of the worst pitchers so far in 2023. Average Exit Velo of 95.4 (bottom 2%), xBA of .381 (bottom 1%), xSLG .662 (bottom 4%), xWOBA of .482 (bottom 1%), Hard Hit balls at 60% (bottom 3%), Strikeout % at 7 (bottom 2%), and Brls/PA is at 11.6 (bottom 1%). He made 1 start against PHI last year, giving up 2 ER in just 2IP. Phillies bats are hot right now too, hitting .300 with an .828 OPS across their last 6 games. The bottom half of the Reds bullpen isn't very good either if Cessa gets pulled early.