MLB (2 Picks)
7:10pm est: Red Sox ML +105 (3 Units)
Patrick Sandoval has had a couple of nice outings for LAA but he’s expected to regress. He allowed just 1ER in his opening start against a poor OAK lineup. Then again just 1ER vs a TOR lineup that has its struggles vs LHP. He has an xERA of 5.06 compared to his actual ERA of 1.64. Like the Yankees Johnny Brito last night, he’s allowing 9.1 % Barrels/PA. The Red Sox line-up has been okay but they’ve always produced at home. They ranked 5th in home offense in 2022 and they rank 9th on the young season currently.
Tanner Houck for Boston has been on the other side of Luck. His xERA is 3.21 compared to his 4.5 ERA. Batters are finding the sweet spot just 11.1% of the time. He has great downward action and is always a pitch away from the double play ball. His GO/AO ratio of 2.8 is great and he finished 2022 at 1.48. The Angels own the 13th ranked offense in 2023 and Gio Urshela is out of the line-up tonight. He leads the team with a .341 BA.
Boston just getting smoked by Tampa is a positive here. Their bullpen produces some mixed results but they have 5 guys that can come on and provide great relief. Those guys are fresh and rested going into tonight. Boston has the arms needed to hold a lead.
7:10pm est: Orioles ML -110 (4 Units)
Tyler Wells has steadily improved as his MLB career continues. He’s made 2 appearances, throwing 5 perfect innings vs Texas and then allowing 4 ER in 6IP against the Yankees. The NYY tend to do that to BAL pitching. There’s a familiarity level there the White Sox won’t have. The White Sox roster has 11 combined AB’s vs Wells going into tonight. The Yankees had 70 AB’s vs Wells last year. His ERA was also .44 points lower pitching on the road compared to at home in 2022. The White Sox lineup ranks 19th on the season and 29th in the past week. They’re hitting just .222 with a .598 OPS in their last 5 games.
Mike Clevinger is one of Baseball’s luckiest pitchers so far. He has an 8.47 xERA compared to his 3.48 ERA. -4.99 is the 3rd largest gap in 2023 for Pitchers with at least 25 batters faced. His slugging % allowed is .325, his xSLG is .519. Both of his starts this year came on the road too. Guaranteed Rate Field (CWS) was the 6th most hitter friendly park in 2022 and ranked 2nd in terms of Homeruns. He gets an Orioles lineup that ranks 3rd in the MLB in Slugging and OPS.
He had a 6.89 era through spring with a whip of 1.34. He gave up 5 HR’s in just 15.2 innings. So far in 2023 he’s made 2 starts, pitching 10 innings. He’s allowed 11 hits and given 7 free passes. His WHIP is 1.55. The Pirates just tagged him for 4 Runs in his most recent. He’s always been a fly ball pitcher but a .38 GO/AO ratio is going to lead to some homers. Somehow he has yet to allow one despite batters finding the sweet spot 54.5% of the time. This Orioles line-up is set up to take advantage.
