MLB (2 Picks)
8:05pm est: Royals/Rangers Over 9 (2 Units)
Zack Greinke really struggled on the road last year. He had a 5.32 road era despite a 1.91 home era. His last couple of trips to Texas went very poorly. Giving up 14 hits, 4 HR’s, 5 Walks, & 13 ER’ in 9 innings pitched. Zack’s been on the luckier side of things through his first 2 starts, he has an xERA (expected ERA) of 5.31, his actual ERA is 2.38. 92MPH average Exit Velo off the bat and a 39.5% sweet spot % are very high numbers. Both of his 2023 starts came at home, where it’s the 29th hardest stadium to homer in since 2020. Greinke allowed just 1 HR at home compared to 13 on the road during 2022.
Andrew Heaney was awful in his debut. 7 ER in just 2.2 innings of work at home against Baltimore. His spring struggles carried over, where he allowed 7 ER in his final 2 starts (7.1 IP). Outside of a brief period with the LAD in 2022, he’s been one of MLB’s worst pitchers the past few years. The Royals line-up is also much more productive vs LH pitching. Their OPS was 50 points higher vs Lefties in 2022 and their OPS this year ranks 19th compared to their dead last rating vs right.
9:40pm est: MIL/ARI Over 9 (2 Units)
Both offenses are red hot in their last 5 games. D-Backs are slashing .326/.392/.520/.912, Brewers; .296/.375/.531/.906. Wade Miley pitched well in his lone start of 2023 against a Mets line-up struggling to find offensive production. Per statcast he had an xERA of 5.60. Arizona’s lineup is much stronger vs LH pitching this year too. Hitting .304 with an OPS .818. They’ve hit .254 with a .715 OPS vs Righties.
ARI SP Zac Gallen is really struggling in 2023. He has a 7.59 era, allowing 9 earned runs in his two starts. The new rules have led to a multitude of problems for Zac. He had one of the slowest tempos in 2022 with runners on base at 26.8 seconds. He also led the league with 129 pickoff attempts in 2022. He’s also been calling his own game. Many pitchers are to speed up the pitch calling process. His regular catcher Carson Kelly is on the IL, leaving him with inexperienced options behind the dish. He had an 8.27 era through spring.