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Major League Players Club MLB (3/30/23)

MLB

MLB sports betting is about finding Value. Everybody likes a nice sexy win % but it’s completely irrelevant when betting Moneylines. Take the Rockies game for example. If you bet that same game 20 times and hit 50%, you’d be doing great. At $1,000 per game, 10 Wins = +$17,500, 10 Losses = -10,000. Net Profit of $7,500. We bet to Win on Favorites and Bet to Risk on Underdogs. Using the same $1,000 Unit bettor as an example: If the ML is a Favorite -120, risk $1,200 to win $1,000. If the ML is a Dog +120, risk $1,000 to win $1,200. Follow those rules along with our Unit instructions and you’ll make money accordingly.


1) 1:05pm est: SF Giants ML +155. (3 Units)


Logan Webb is simply better than Gerrit Cole. He’s an ascending stud that pitched to a 3.03 ERA in 2021 and a 2.9 ERA in 2022. Cole on the other hand is still good, but his 3.5 ERA in 2022 is not quite elite. Webb also matches up quite well against a NYY line-up that digs the long ball. No team hit more Homeruns in 2022 than the Yankees and they’re poised to be right back up there again in 2023. Nearly 50% of all their runs come courtesy of the Homer. The one thing Webb does very well, keep the ball on the ground. Only Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros had a better Ground Out to Air Out Ratio (GO/AO) in 2022. His 2022 ratio of 1.89 ranks 5th across the last 5 MLB seasons. Only 2 Yankees have faced Webb before too. They have a combined 8 at bats. Advantage Webb early in the game.

Cole looks his usual self in Spring. A Quality innings eater that’s susceptible to the long ball. He went 5.1 IP giving up just 1 ER in his final spring start but surrendered 4 ER and 3 ER in the 2 starts prior. As expected, he allowed a HR in each of those 2 poor outings. SF’s bats have had a bit of success against Cole too. BA against Cole: Conforto .286 on 7 at bats, Crawford .300 on 20 AB’s, Flores .333 on 6 AB’s, Haniger .368 on 19 AB’s, Pederson .444 on 9 AB’s, Slater .667 on 3 AB’s. That’s everyone with prior at bats against Cole. This Yankees bullpen isn’t nearly as strong as years past either. There’s plenty of question marks on the back end where even if SF can’t break through against Cole, they’ll have chances against a below average Yankees bullpen.


2) 4:10pm est: Rockies ML +175. (4 Units)


German Marquez has been inconsistent at times in his career but he’s generally sharp away from Coors Field. If you’re new to baseball, Coors Field is the most hitter friendly park in the big leagues. Going back, 3.34 road ERA in 2022, 5.38 in 2021, 2.06 in 2020, 3.67 in 2019, and 2.95 in 2018. In his last 2 trips to San Diego, just 2 ER on 14 Innings pitched. Marquez is a ground ball pitcher that pitches to contact. He throws a sinking fastball that most hitters roll over. His inconsistencies come when that fastball comes out flat and they’ve worked on his mechanics all off-season. It’s about staying on top of the baseball through his release point. He and his manager Bud Black were interviewed about this. Staying on top of those mechanics have translated into the spring. He’s allowed just 1 ER across 17 innings with a Ground Out to Air Out (GO/AO) ratio of 1.58. That ratio would slide in top 5 in each of the last two regular seasons and that’s ELITE company. COL was 2nd in turning Double Plays per game last season too.


On the flip side Blake Snell is a very good pitcher when he’s on, but he hasn’t looked overly sharp with a 5.63 ERA through spring. Granted his final dress rehearsal went well. Going 6 innings without allowing a run against the Angels B-Team. The start prior he gave up 7 Earned Runs in 3 innings against Seattle. Translating spring training numbers can be tricky, it’s best not to dive too deep. The Offensive numbers tend to translate better. Guys that are seeing the ball well and making good contact during Spring, generally find early season success. Hitting is very streaky.


That’s another box the Rockies have checked, their starting line-up has performed well throughout the spring and there’s some young guys making noise. Their top prospects that you’ll be hearing about soon. This line-up also loves their lefties. They own the 2nd highest OPS vs LH pitching in Spring and ranked 4th in that same category during the 2022 MLB season. On the opposite side of the Diamond the Padres line-up is stacked, but they have plenty of big named bats struggling to make contact and even the best hitters in the world go through slumps.


Like we stated earlier, it’s all about the Value. At +175 this is too good to pass up. Most of our plays will come on the + Side of things. The average bettor loves to bet their favorites and you get tremendous value on the flip side. Sportsbooks already shade the favorites way when lines open and get pushed even higher by the action coming in.


3) 4:10pm est: Royals ML +125 (3 Units)


Zach Greinke might not be competing for Cy Youngs anymore, but he loves pitching inside the confines of Kauffman Stadium. His MLB career started in KC back in 2004 and he’s enjoying a successful exit in the same city. Greinke pitched to a 3.68 era across 26 starts in 2022 but at home that era dropped all the way down to 1.91. As a Team KC was 39-42 at home despite winning just 65 games last year. Division Rival Minnesota went 32-49 on the road last season. Twins SP Pablo Lopez has flashed success but he still wrapped up 2022 with a 3.75 era. This is also his first start for a team not named the Marlins. He hasn’t been stretched out much either. He hasn’t gone more than 3 innings or topped 45 pitches in any spring start. He’s allowed 4 ER in just 7 innings of work through the spring.

While neither bullpen is projected to be very good, the Twins are very top heavy. Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez form and Elite 8th and 9th but that’s really it. They lack mid-long-range relief. Relief they’re going to need considering Lopez hasn’t thrown more than 45 pitches all spring. The Royals bullpen depth will be tested this season, but they have Aroldis Chapman and Amir Garrett available before passing it off to Scott Barlow, who’s proven to be a quality closer.

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