Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (4/30/25)

MLB

5 Picks (17 Units).

4:10PM EST: Giants ML +130 (3 Units).

LP: A. Roupp (SF) / M. King (SD).

SF SP Aaron Roupp has an xERA of 3.24 and it's because his Hard-Hit % is a 26.8. That's among the top 6% of MLB. Walks can be an issue for him at times, but he keeps the ball down and generates enough strikeouts. San Diego got to Logan Webb early last night, but the Padres are still 29th in OPS over the last week. They're 28th in OPS over the last 15 days. SF has the 2nd best bullpen in baseball and saved their best arms last night since they were trailing. SD SP Michael King has pitched very well but he's completed 6 innings just once through 6 starts. The Padres have the best bullpen in baseball, but they used their top guys yesterday.

6:10PM: Guardians ML +105 (3 Units).

LP: Pablo Lopez (MIN) / L.L. Ortiz (CLE).

MIN SP Pablo Lopez pitches to contact and that inevitably leads to trouble. His xERA is a full point higher than his actual ERA on the season. His career road ERA is a 4.1 compared to 3.64 at Home. In 70 career plate appearances the Guardians have a .312 xBA and .363 xwOBA. CLE SP Luis Ortiz struggled with command in his most recent start against the Yankees and got punished for it. His 29K's in 21 IP in 4 April starts speaks to his stuff. Minnesota is much more aggressive at the plate, ranking 21st in walks and OBP. It's a good match-up if he returns to the form that saw him allow just 6 combined runs in his first 3 April starts.

6:45PM EST: Nationals ML +210 (3 Units).

LP: J. Irvin (WSH).

WSH SP Jake Irvin was a road warrior last season and has been in through 2 road starts in 2025. Dating back to the start of last season he's allowed 2 ER or less in 16 of his last 22 road starts. He's allowed 2 ER through 2 road starts this year on 13.1 IP. He's had mixed results against Philly in his career but his .267 xBA and .323 xwOBA against the current Phillies roster are both solid. He allowed 2 runs on 5 IP against them to open the season at Home. PHI SP Christopher Sanchez picked up where he left off last season, throwing well. He was pulled after just 2 innings and 58 pitches against the Mets in his most recent start 8 days ago though. He allowed 2 ER on 4 hits and 2 walks. Washington is plenty familiar with Sanchez and can scrape a few across if he isn't sharp again today.

7:05PM EST: Royals ML +145 (4 Units).

LP: N. Cameron (KC).

Noah Cameron is making his MLB debut for the Royals. KC's 5th ranked prospect has swing and miss stuff, striking out 27 in 22.1 IP at AAA. He had 1 bad outing down there but was sharp in his 4 others. He doesn't walk a ton of batters and that'll be key as young guys tend to struggle with command in their first start. He gets a good match-up as the Rays are 24th in OPS over the last week and 26th in OPS vs LHP on the season. He also won't be asked to pitch too deeply. He threw a couple of innings 4 days ago so it's unlikely he sees any Rays batter more than twice. The majority of the Royals bullpen has also been elite. The Royals are 6th in Team ERA and 9th in bullpen ERA. 21 of the 36 earned runs that their bullpen has allowed have come from 2 different pitchers, one of which isn't on the active roster. Their bullpen's also in phenomenal shape as Angel Zerpa is the only reliever that's pitched more than once in the last 4 days. He's 7th in ERA among Royals relievers. The 6th ranked reliever has a 2.57 ERA. Elite pitching has always beaten elite hitting and that's why the Royals are 15-15 despite ranking 29th in OPS. It won’t be easy for the Royals to score runs on Rasmussen, but he allowed 4ER his last time out and has yet to complete 6 innings of work. The Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games despite averaging less than 4 runs per game.

7:40PM EST: White Sox ML +145 (4 Units).

LP: T. Myers (MIL) / S. Smith (CWS).

MIL SP Tobias Myers is making his 2nd start of the season. He allowed 2 ER on 4 Hits and 4 Walks across 4 IP against the Giants last week. He only made 3 rehab starts and threw 82 pitches in his 2025 debut. He was great in his rookie season last year but there's some concern about arm conditioning for right now. His BB/9 would have ranked 26th among starters last year had he qualified with enough innings pitched. The 4 walks against SF says a lot about his current form. The White Sox offense has also been decent of late, ranking 9th in OPS over the last week.

CWS SP Shane Smith has a 2.3 ERA through 5 starts. He lost the zone in a tough venue at Boston a couple of starts back but has completed 5 innings allowing 2 runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts. Bad teams don't have very deep bullpens, but Chicago has a few guys throwing well and they're available. In the Month of April Steven Wilson hasn't allowed a run, Mike Vasil has a 1.26 ERA in 7 appearances and 14.1 IP, and Cam Booser has a 2.08 ERA in 8 games. If Smith throws well, they have the arms to finish the job off.