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Major League Players Club Divisional Round (10/6/23)

(3 Picks)

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ALDS: Orioles to advance to ALCS -120 (4 Units)


Orioles hold the pitching advantage here. Kyle Bradish starts for BAL to open the series and he had the 4th best ERA in baseball at 2.83. He also had the best ERA when pitching at Home with a 2.23. He'll also be able to pitch twice should this game go to Game 5 and that will be at home next Friday. Plenty of rest in between.


Then there's Grayson Rodriguez who posted a 2.64 ERA across 5 August starts and a 2.14 ERA across 5 September starts. Dean Kramer has a 3.09 ERA his last 15 starts and a 2.6 in his last 7. They just got John Means back, their 2022 opening day starter. He has a 2.66 ERA across 4 starts. He's also allowed just 4 Hits in his last 2 starts combined (13.2 IP). They could also opt to start Veteran Kyle Gibson but he's likely to be added to the bullpen.


Speaking of Bullpens this is the 5th best bullpen in baseball. They're littered with reliable options and that's despite losing Felix Bautista to injury. It's a blow for sure but Yennier Cano is more than capable and he's filled in nicely in his absence. The Orioles had a 3.22 Team ERA from September on, 3rd best in baseball. Bautista last pitched in August.


The Rangers bullpen ranks 24th and they really struggled to close out the year. With the days off in between games the bullpens become extremely valuable. You get to pitch those guys early and often. There's scheduled days off on Monday and Thursday for this series. They play 5 games in 7 days should it go that far.


The Rangers starting duo of Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are great but they won't be ready for the start of this series. Montgomery pitched on Tuesday so he's lined up for Sunday and Eovaldi pitched Wednesday so he'll have to start at home on Tuesday. Montgomery would also be on short rest for Game 5 on Friday if it makes it that far.


Outside of those two their other options aren't great. Scherzer's hurt. Dane Dunning has a 5.0 ERA his last 7 days and a 4.69 in his last 15. Jon Gray has a 6.67 ERA his last 7 and a 5.42 in his last 15. As a starter Andrew Heaney has a 4.08 ERA and Martin Perez has a 4.98 ERA. Hard to overcome losing DeGrom and Scherzer and their starting rotations been stretched thin. They'll try and piece it together with their bullpen some games but that hasn't been great.


Offensively Texas averages 5.44 runs per game to the Orioles 4.98. They're both capable but Texas has been one of the best offenses all season and holds a slight edge but it's pitching that matters most in the post-season. Baltimore's also the #1 overall seed and as such playing at Home for 3 of the potential 5 games and the first 2.


Neither team has too much post-season experience either. It works out for a young Orioles roster to face off against an equally inexperienced Texas team. And despite years of mediocrity, the Orioles faithful will show out for their team. Baltimore is a historical franchise and they've had 6 sellout games during the regular season as is. They sold out against Boston for their 101st win too. The Home Field advantage will be there.


NLDS: Phillies/Braves to go to Game 5 +170 (2 Units)

NLDS: D-Backs/Dodgers to go to Game 5 +170 (2 Units)


These are the two in division divisional round series. Phillies and Braves both play in the NL East and the D-Backs and Dodgers play in the NL West. The Wild Card round isn't as detrimental to the NL Divisional round either because they get an extra day compared to their AL counterparts. Their Game 5's will be played next Saturday if they get there. They both play Saturday but get the day off Sunday before playing their 2nd game Monday.


This enables them to roll out their best pitchers more frequently and unload the bullpen. They play back to back days just once and that's Wednesday/Thursday. They have a day off before and after that. The in division part is why we like the value here. These teams are plenty familiar with one another and battled all season. Braves and Dodgers both won the regular season against their counterparts 8-5 but post-season play is different.


Philly's home field advantage is nuts in the playoffs. This is also a rematch of last years ALDS that Philly won 3-1. Arizona on the other hand is enjoying it's first trip to the divisional round since 2017. Chase Stadium will be rocking. Their bullpen really comes in handy against the Dodgers. Since September first they have a 2.31 ERA and that's the 3rd best mark in baseball. With just two frontline starters in Merrill Kelly (Starting G1) and Zac Gallen they'll need them. Kelly can also pitch again in game 4 if they need him.


Both of these series should be very good and a grind. The Dodgers aren't nearly as dominant in years past and that Arizona team is gutsy. Philly represented the NL in the World Series last year and went through ATL last year to do it. The Braves are just the best team in baseball now. Good chance at least one of these series make it to a game 5.

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