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3:08 PM EST: Rangers ML +130 (3 Units)
Jordan Montgomery has pitched very well for Texas since coming over from STL, posting a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts. He has a 3.2 ERA on the year. He's also allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts combined. He went 7 innings in 3 of those 4 start and 6 in another. He's pitched better on the road too, posting a 2.73 ERA, 3rd best in baseball. He has Post-Season experience dating back to his time in NY and with STL last year. Making 1 start and 1 relief appearance for a combined 6.2 IP, allowing just 1 ER.
Tyler Glasnow starts for TB and while he's a frontline starter, he's struggling lately. He turned in 5 shutout innings against a Red Sox lineup that ranked 28th in OPS through the Month of September his last time out but allowed 14 ER combined in the 3 starts prior. He also has a 5.79 ERA in 9 career post-season starts.
The Rays do hold a significant bullpen advantage over the Rangers but that doesn't always workout the way you hope in the post-season. Every time you bring out a new guy on the mound you run the risk of his nerves imploding. This is high leverage baseball and there are a ton of guys who can do it all regular season long but fold in these moments. There isn't a whole lot of post-season experience in that Rays bullpen either.
Guys like Corey Seager are invaluable in games like these. He's been there and done it for years with the Dodgers and the Rays certainly remember. He won World Series MVP when the LAD won it all against the Rays in 2020.