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9:20PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +170 (2 Units)
Merrill Kelly starts for AZ and he's been the Diamondbacks best pitcher posting a 3.29 ERA across 30 starts. He's pitched pretty well against the Dodgers this season too. He didn't allow a run over 3.2 IP in his opening day start at LA. Then held the Dodgers to 2 ER over 5.2 IP at Home. He shut them out over 6 innings pitched at Home again. But then got blasted for 7 runs over 5IP in LA the last time he faced them.
That's more of an uncharacteristic, just doesn't have it start. He's had a few of those this season. The 12 Hits and 7ER against the Dodgers. 10 Hits, 7 Runs, 5 ER over 5IP against SF and 7ER over 5 IP on 6 hits and 4 walks to the Mets. He's allowed 2 ER or less in 20 of his 30 starts. Sometimes he's just not incredibly sharp and he's more of a pitcher, not a thrower. It gets ugly when those guys are flat.
Backing him up is the 3rd best Bullpen in baseball since September 1st. It's part of the reason for the next play but we expect Arizona to go to it as soon as Kelly is done going through the lineup twice. Their bullpen dominance continued in the wild card series against MIL, throwing 8.2 shutout innings. The reason we expect Lovullo to go it so early is because they get a day off tomorrow. They play again Sunday but get another day off on Monday. If the bullpen isn't used early, Kelly's throwing a Gem.
The Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw. He's one of the best in baseball and very difficult to score on. The Diamondbacks have what it takes to manufacture some runs though. Their 166 steals ranked 2nd in MLB. Rookie Corbin Carroll ranked 3rd in the MLB with 54 stolen bases and Tommy Pham came over halfway through the year and added 11 Stolen Bases in just 50 games.
9:20PM EST: Merill Kelly Under 16.5 Outs (2 Units)
Regardless of how Kelly performs we still like him to stay Under 16.5 Outs. It's also a bit of a hedge which isn't the reason behind this play but if the Kelly comes out and gets smoked this should cover the loss for the Diamondbacks play. But with that nasty bullpen behind him and that day off tomorrow, there's no reason they shouldn't roll that bullpen out early. Pitchers splits are significantly worse the 3rd time through the order and Arizona doesn't need him to do that.