(1 Pick)
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8:07PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +115 (3 Units)
Christopher Sanchez is starting for PHI. He hasn't pitched a live game since September 30th. That is an absurdly long layoff and there's no simulating live action. He's done whatever he's needed to do to stay ready and stretched out but there's no replicating stepping onto a mound and facing another team. He makes his return on the road at Prime Time in his first career post-season start. Tall order for a young man with just 22 career MLB starts under his belt. Decent chance there's an immediate piggyback to either Tajuan Walker or Michael Lorenzen too who both have starting experience but they really struggled to end the year. As such Walker has yet to pitch in the playoff and Lorenzen just once. If ARI can chase Sanchez there's no high leverage reliever coming in.
Arizona is a full blown bullpen day. It's a bullpen that's been dominant since September 1st. They were the 3rd ranked bullpen for the final Month+ of the regular season and have pitched very well in the post-season. They struggled in game 2 of this series in Philly but they still have a 3.41 ERA over 29 post-season IP. If you exclude game 2 against PHI the bullpen has a allowed just 5 ER over 26.2 IP (1.69 ERA). In games 1 & 3 against PHI the ARI bullpen allowed 1 ER over 6.1 IP and it came on a wild pitch last night. Ball never left the infield that inning.
The Arizona bullpen is also freshly rested. Nobody has pitched more than once in the last 5 days and there was an off day on Wednesday. The 4 relievers who pitched yesterday will all be available again today. This game being played in Arizona is huge here. If this game were in Philly we wouldn't be playing it. But every reliever has the crowd behind them and not against them tonight. Philly's offense went ice cold playing away from the Bank last night too. They're hitting just .194 with a .593 OPS across 3 road games this post-season.
Arizona's bats on the other hand finally woke up and racked up 9 hits and 4 walks. They squandered quite a few chances leaving 10 men on base and scored just 2 runs going 3 for 11 with RISP. But there's quality at bats being taken and traffic on the base paths. This is the worst pitching Arizona's going to see in this series. The stadium environment will also be much better tonight. They played at 2pm local time yesterday and will play at 5pm today. This is also a series now after last night's win and the Arizona faithful who haven't seen this team play in the NLCS since 2007 are sure to be there.
