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8:07PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +140 (3 Units)
ARI SP Merrill Kelly was actually better than Zac Gallen's been this year. His 3.29 ERA ranked 11th in all of baseball. He allowed just 4ER combined in his final 3 regular season starts and threw 6.1 shutout innings in LA in his 1 post-season start this year. He allowed just 3 hits against the Dodgers that day. He's pitching as well as any and the Diamondbacks bullpen is ready to fire away behind him. It's been one of the best in baseball but with Gallen's dud yesterday, they saved their high leverage arms. Even their lesser arms combined for 3 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 hits. With a day off tomorrow before 3 at Arizona, they can unload them.
Philly starts Aaron Nola but he has a history of coming up short in big spots. To his credit he's made 2 good post-season starts so far but he has 9 years of major league service time. Not convinced just yet. Last year he didn't allow an earned run in either of his first two playoff starts and then reverted back to the same ole Nola. Giving up 6 ER over 4.2 IP, 5ER over 4.1 IP, and 3ER over 4 IP. Safely securing the Phillies loss to the Astros in the World Series. He was also much better all season long in 2022, posting a 3.25 regular season era compared to this years 4.46 ERA. At the very least ARI also got to see the Phillies best bullpen arms last night too.
This Diamondbacks offense tends to find a way and this is a gritty team. They were down 5-0 last night and got it within 2 in the 7th inning. They kept the pressure on but Wheelers performance and the Phillies elite bullpen arms secured the win. They still managed to score 2 runs on Wheeler late and he's flat out better than Nola. Wheeler has a 2.63 ERA over 9 career post-season starts. A True big game pitcher. That was the first post-season game Arizona didn't score 4 runs. We touched on Gallen's road struggles last night and how you could see that performance coming. Don't think this moments too big for Arizona and they're up for the task. +140 is good odds.