LSU Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles CFB Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Predictions (9/3/23)

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CFB

(9/3/23) 7:30PM Eastern.

Spread: LSU -2.5 / FSU +2.5

ML: LSU -140 / FSU +120

Over/Under 56.5

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Free Pick: Under 56.5

#5 LSU and #8 Florida State meet in Orlando to play the biggest game of College Football's opening weekend this Sunday. These two also met week 1 of last season with Florida State winning a thriller by the final score of 24-23. That game was all but over after LSU muffed a punt and set FSU up with a Goal to-go situation up 24-17 with just 2:15 remaining. But FSU fumbled it on a toss play on 3rd down. The Tigers had a minute 20 to go 99 yards and they used every second to do so. FSU would go on to block the extra point to seal a Win.

Florida State returns 94% of it's defensive production from a season ago, which ranks 2nd Nationally per ESPN. They brought in DT Braden Fiske from Western Michigan, the #1 ranked defensive lineman in the portal. He joins an absolutely loaded front 7 headline by Edge Jared Verse, who could have gone pro in last season but opted to return. He's a projected top 10 pick. There's reigning ACC defensive rookie of the year Patrick Payton who plays opposite of Verse. DT Fabien Lovett is also healthy this season. FSU's defense last year w/Fabien Lovett on field: 193 snaps, 3.37 yd/play, 3.18 yd/des run, 11.5% sack rate. Without Lovett: 670 snaps, 5.27 yd/play, 4.82 yd/des run, 9.9% sack rate. They also added Fentrell Cypress from Virginia, who was the 11th ranked cover corner according to PFF.

LSU's also very strong up front. Junior DE Savion Jones returns after a strong sophomore campaign in which he had 4.5 sacks. Hybrid Linebacker Harold Perkins returns after a stellar freshman season. He had 72 tackles and 7.5 sacks as a true freshman. On the interior you have Mekhi Wingo entering year 3, he had 3 sacks last year. Then Maason Smith, a game wrecker who played just 8 snaps last season. He may be the best defender on the roster but unfortunately for LSU he's suspended for this game.

LSU did lose most of it's secondary though, as they did the year before. They were able to re-tool and they should be okay again this year but don't expect LSU to be overly aggressive in this one. FSU had one of the best passing attacks in CFB last year and the major contributors are back + transfer portal talent. With a strong defensive line in front, LSU will play coverage. They're not going to leave their young inexperienced secondary on an island.

FSU will take advantage of favorable run looks. They ranked 23rd in College Football averaging 198.1 yards per game in 2022 and return 4 of their 5 leading rushers. Including lead back Trey Benson who averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Games are won and lost in the trenches and these are two of the best defensive lines in the Nation. They'll dictate a lower scoring game.

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