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12:30PM EST: Lions -7 (4 Units)
Detroit's coming off a couple close games but they match-up very well against Green Bay. They beat them 34-20 in Green Bay earlier this year and through a heavy dose of RB David Montgomery. Expect a similar formula but with a little more Jahmyr Gibbs involved this time around. The Packers rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 134.7. That jumps to 155.8 on the Road. They also rank 24th allowing 4.3 yards per rush. The Lions rank 5th, averaging 136.6 rushing yards per game, up to 142.6 at Home. They also rank 5th, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
It's how the entire Lions offense operates. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and OC Ben Johnson utilizes heavy play-action. The only times the Lions have struggled is when they've failed to establish a ground game. Struggle is also a bit of an over exaggeration considering they've scored 20 or more points in all but 1 game. The Packers’ run defense is coming off a couple rough outings too. Allowing 150 yards to the Chargers and 205 to Pittsburgh. The Chargers rank 18th and Steelers 16th in rushing yards per game. Detroit's offense will be rocking and rolling as usual.
The Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has also figured out Matt LaFleur's offense. They've allowed just 45 combined points to GB in their last 3 head-to-head meetings combined and Aaron Rodgers was under center for 2 of those for Green Bay. The Packers have scored 20 or less in 7 of their 10 games this year. Excluding their 38-20 win over Chicago in week 1, the Packers average just 18.2 points per game. They currently rank 20th in points per game but 18.2 would slide them in at 25th.
Detroit's won and covered against Green Bay 4 straight times. In fact, they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 against their division foe. No reason these trends won't continue Thanksgiving Day. Green Bay is also without starting RB Aaron Jones. It's a big loss for a Packers offense that lacks playmakers.
4:30PM EST: WSH/DAL Over 48.5 (3 Units)
The Dallas offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Dak's playing some of the best football of his career and as a result Dallas is averaging 37 points per game over their last 4. Going back, they scored 33 in Carolina, 49 against the Giants, 23 in Philly, and 43 against the Rams. The 23 IN Philly is still impressive. It's a very difficult place to play and he threw for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66% accuracy. He was also under siege and sacked 5 times.
He won't have to worry about an Elite pass rush in this one. Sure, the Commanders had a good day sacking Tommy Devito of the Giants, but they still gave up 31 points. Everyone gets sacks against the Giants anyway. The 2 games played before NYG and after they traded edge rushers Sweat and Young, just 1 combined sack. Dak's also being sacked just 1.8 times per game at Home this year. For reference the Lions rank 4th in the NFL allowing 1.8 sacks per game.
You could point out the Dallas offense exploding onto the scene has come against mediocre defenses and that would be true. But Washington ranks dead last in points allowed per game and 29th in yards. Just another bad defense for the Cowboys to add to their hit list.
On the flip side the Washington offense can move the ball. They rank 17th in points per game at 21.5 and 12th in yards at 340.7. They're frequently playing catch-up and forced to throw quite a bit. They lead the league averaging 40.2 pass attempts per game which is great news for an over.
The Cowboys defense is good, but they've been scored on. They've had the luxury of playing some pretty bad offenses, but they'll let up some points. They held Carolina to 10 points last week, but the Giants scored 17 a couple weeks ago, Philly 28, and the Rams 20. It isn't a ton of points but with the way Dallas's offense is playing it's enough to push this total over.
The 1 area that can lead to easy points is Dallas Takeaways. Washington is tied for 30th giving the ball away 1.9 times per game and Dallas is tied for 8th with 1.8 takeaways per game. Dallas also boasts an elite pass rush while Washington is the 2nd most sacked team in the league at 4.6 sacks per game. Whether it be a sack fumble or a bad throw from a result of pressure, Washington's likely to turn the ball over and give Dallas a short field once or twice.
8:20PM EST: 49ers -7 (3 Units)
Seattle is 0-3 against San Francisco by a combined score of 89-43 with Geno Smith under center. He has yet to play a competitive game against them. His best loss was an 8-point defeat 21-13 in which the 4th quarter started 21-6. He has an extremely difficult time pushing the ball downfield against the SF zones.
To make matters worse Geno is also banged up. He left last week’s game with an elbow injury. He's likely to play but it is his throwing arm and it's going to affect him. If he can't go that means Drew Lock is in and we like our chances even more. RB Kenneth Walker is also doubtful and that's a huge blow. He possesses true homerun threat and is a key cog to the Seattle offense.
Defensively the Seahawks haven't been great. They limited a bad Rams offense to just 17 points last week but blew a 16-7 lead by letting up 10 in the 4th. They lost that game 16-17. Commanders threw up 26 on them the week before that, Ravens 37 a few weeks back. Even the Browns led by PJ Walker managed to score 20 points and that was in Seattle. They haven't been able to stop anybody.
The 49ers offense speaks for itself. They rank 3rd in points per game and with Deebo and Trent Williams back SF is back on cruise control. They hit a little rough patch when those two went down but they're back and healthy. They scored 27 against a Top 10 TB defense last week and 34 in Jacksonville against what was at the time a top 10 scoring defense as well. They've won every game by at least a touchdown with Deebo and Trent starting and finishing the game.
The last 2 games also coincided with the addition of Chase Young at the trade deadline. Since making that move SF has generated pressure on an absurd 43% of opposing drop backs. It's bad news for a Seattle team that ranks 25th in rushing yards per game and without their stud running back. Even if he was playing SF has the 3rd best run defense in the league. Will be a very long day for Seattle if San Fran jumps ahead early and forces Seattle to play catch-up.
The 2 remaining Turkey Shoot Games will be on Friday's Games.