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CFB
(2 Picks)
9:00PM EST: Kansas Team Total Over 40.5 (4 Units).
If you can't bet team totals, bet the game over up to 66.5 at 3 Units.
9:00PM EST: Jason Bean Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (2 Units).
Both teams are offensively driven but the talent disparity makes it difficult to trust UNLV to hold up their end of the bargain. Kansas has one of the most potent offenses in the Country and it's even more impressive considering starting QB Jalon Daniels played in just 3 games. It's been Dual Threat QB Jason Bean leading the Jayhawks most of the way but even he missed time. Despite that the Kansas offense has continued to produce. They're great up front and average the 8th most rushing yards per game in College Football.
Jason Bean is an intriguing story and part of the reason we like Kansas to show out. He's a 6th year Senior and playing his final CFB game. He was very clearly the #2 QB behind Daniel's and despite having just 1 year of eligibility left he chose to return to Kansas this season. He could have easily transferred and taken a starting gig elsewhere. Bean's been at Kansas since 2021 and earned the starting gig over Daniels that year as the more experienced option. He would eventually lose his job to Daniel's later that season and has been his backup ever since.
He made 5 starts for an injured Daniel's last year and 8 this year. He was also the starter at North Texas before transferring to Kansas. All together he's attempted 670 career passes to go along with 245 rushing attempts. He's a quality QB with plenty of experience. Had he decided to transfer, Kansas isn't even close to where they are this season. That speaks to not only his character but the program that HC Lance Leipold is building.
Leipold has a 162-60 career record as Head Coach, winning at every stop. He's in his 3rd year at Kansas and has them playing in their 2nd straight Bowl Game. They lost to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl last year 55-53 in a Triple Overtime thriller. He's coached in 4 Bowl Games, leading Buffalo to 3 straight before departing for Kansas. He won his last 2 but lost his first won 42-32 to Troy after getting outscored 22-8 in the 4th quarter. We point this out because his teams have showed up and competed in every bowl game that he's coached. They only have a few transfers to deal with but the majority of this rosters intact. Leipold will have these boys ready to play but so will the presence of Jason Bean.
Bean's toughed it out for the Jayhawks and proven paramount to their success the last couple years. He's been a leader to this team and a player every Coach would love to have in their program. This is his final Collegiate game and what could very well be his last game as a starting QB as he doesn't project to the NFL. This Kansas team and specifically the offense is going to play their balls off for this man. They'll get an incredible opportunity to provide a proper send off against a not-so-great UNLV defense.
The Rebels play in the Mountain West, a conference that would get steamrolled by the Big 12. With that UNLV hasn't played the same level of Talent. When they've faced potent offense or just higher-level programs, their defense has been torched. Michigan coasted to 35 as McCarthy went 22/25 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. A 2-10 Vanderbilt team put up their season high against an FBS opponent at 37. Vandy only scored more than 28 points twice all year and the 2nd came against fellow Mountain West team Hawaii. UNLV's last 2 games of this season came against the top half of the Mountain West, and they surrendered 37 to San Jose State and 44 to Boise State. Kansas has more talent than every single one of those teams outside of Michigan. The Wolverines just took their foot off the gas pedal real early, in part because it was just week 2.
Kansas won't show much mercy as long as Bean's under center. Beans started 8 games for Kansas this season but attempted just 4 passes against Texas Tech before leaving with an injury. Another one of his starts came in Texas and we're going to exclude that here because that's one of, if not the best defense in the Nation. In the other 6 starts, Kansas has averaged 42.2 points per game. He came back from injury for Kansas's final regular season game against Cincinnati and helped lead them to a 49-16 win. He completed 13 of 17 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and added 4 carries for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's completely healthy coming into this game.
The Kansas offense should move the ball at will. As mentioned before, they have the 8th ranked rushing attack and that's with the QB carousel all year. UNLV's defense ranks 80th in rushing yards allowed per game at 162 but they've allowed a whopping 292.7 per game over their last 3. Going Back; Boise St ran for 301 (5.9 YPC), San Jose State 233 (5.8 YPC), and Air Force 344 (5.5). The Jayhawks WR room is much more talented than the UNLV secondary too. To make matters worse UNLV has 6 defensive players leaving through the Portal. A couple key depth and rotational pieces but the loss of Safety Cameren Jenkins is a big one. He's already committed to Baylor and was a key middle of the field defender.
UNLV will have to score some sort of points for Kansas to keep pushing here and they're more than capable. Their offense can score and in a hurry. They do have the 22nd ranked scoring offense and have scored less than 24 just twice all year. 20 to Boise State in their finale and 7 to Michigan. Kansas is also without their leading-edge rusher as he's already opted out and likely to declare for the NFL draft. It's a big hit to a Jayhawks defense that is an average group. They've held just 2 FBS opponents to less than 21 points this year and it was against Cincinnati and Texas Tech, two bad offensive teams.
This could easily wind up a back-and-forth affair, but Kansas is truly the much more talented team on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't surprise to see the Jayhawks defense create problems for UNLV, especially with a Redshirt Freshman at QB. Much more faith in the Kansas offense and Jason Bean specifically to show out.
