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NFL
(2 Picks)
1:00PM EST: Browns -3 (3 Units) ✅
It's possible Case Keenum leads Houston to back-to-back wins, but we find that unlikely. They squeaked out an Overtime win over a not-so-great Titans team with Keenum last week. Keenum himself was okay but Houston ran the ball well. They're a below average rushing team, ranking just 21st in rushing yards per game and they should struggle in that department today. The Browns are the 11th ranked rushing defense, allowing just over 100 yards per game. They're also playing very well of late, allowing just 88.7 rushing YPG over their last 3. Those 3 games include the Bears 5th and Rams 11th ranked rushing attacks. The Rams are running the ball incredibly well of late with Kyren Williams back too.
The same Texans offensive line is also struggling in pass protection. Houston ranks 26th in sacks allowed per game at 2.9 and that's up to 4.25 over their last 4. Going back, they've allowed 3, 5, 5, and 4 sacks. The Browns are tied for 8th in sacks per game and have one of the league's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett. They're going to get home and Keenum is half the athlete that Stroud is. He also has half the arm, so it's not so easy for him to bail out of a bad situation. He threw 1 interception last week and fumbled the ball once as well, HOU fortunately recovered. CLE is going to take the ball away; they rank 4th in takeaways per game. They'll also be getting CB Denzel Ward back at full strength, which is a huge boost to the secondary.
Offensively the Browns can move the football. Flacco's a gunslinger and he's going to push the ball downfield and make some mistakes in the process. Some big news in the injury department this week though. Their starting Center Ethan Pocic is back, he didn't play last week. G Joel Bitionio is also on the optimistic side of questionable. His back tightened up on him in warmups before last week’s game which ultimately forced him out of action early on against CHI. He was a limited participant in Friday's practice. Pocic is the big ticket though. Flacco was sacked 4 times and interceptions were thrown because of pressure. He was sacked just 3 times combined in his first 2 games. Pocic will help sure up protections.
Houston is also without two of their best defensive players. LB Blake Cashman and Will Anderson are both ruled out. Cashman is their force inside and leading tackler. Anderson is an elite edge presence who excels against both the run and pass. Going to be much easier to run the football inside and keep Flacco upright when they drop back to pass.
Houston has the 15th ranked scoring defense. They have their moments, but they aren't an elite Unit. Going back the Titans scored 16 on them last week and the NY Jets scored 30 the week prior. They held the Broncos to 17 but gave up 24 to Jacksonville. Cleveland's offense has scored 20, 30, and 19 with Flacco under Center. They were extremely shorthanded up front with the surprise injury to Bitonio last week too. There's going to be a ton of pressure on Keenum to make big time throws in this game and he's failed to make them throughout his career. Browns Defense should score some points for the Offense today too.
8:15PM EST: NE/DEN Over 36.5 (4 Units) ✅️
This total's a bit too low. Bailey Zappe has settled in as the starting QB for NE and their offense is moving the ball. They'll be without Stevenson again today, but he hasn't played in weeks. New England scored 17 on the Chiefs 3rd ranked scoring defense last week and 21 on the Steelers 7th ranked scoring defense 2 weeks ago. Zappe's completed 42 of 59 passes (71.2%) for 420 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
The Broncos defense has been playing better lately but they still let up points. Going back, they gave up 42 to Detroit last week, held the Chargers to 7 the week prior, allowed 22 to to Houston, held the Dorian Thompson Robinson/PJ Walker led Browns to 12, Vikings 20, and Bills 22. They've been solid but they're allowing enough points to drive this over the very low total.
The Broncos offense has consistently put-up points. They've scored at least 17 points in 8 straight games. New England's defense beat up on some bad teams for a few weeks, but they gave up 18 to the Steelers 2 weeks ago and 27 the Chiefs last week. They'll also be without Safety Jabril Peppers today, which is a massive loss. He signed with NE in 2022 and has started every single game since. He's a leader and vital communicator on the back end for the Patriots. They already had 3 Defensive Backs on the IR this season, placed JC Jackson on the inactive list on the 19th, and are now without Peppers. They're thin in the backend.
Never hurts to see the public absolutely Hammer an Under and Vegas not budge the line one bit. Over 85% of Tickets and $$$ have come in on the Under across multiple major sportsbooks. The odds have yet to move the corresponding way. In fact, this line did drop down to 34.5 earlier in the week but they've since moved it back up.
