1:00PM EST: Jaguars -2 (3 Units)
The Steelers find ways to grind out wins but this is a tough match-up for them. The Jaguars offense is elite and they've been able to score on good defenses. They scored 30 in New Orleans and 25 in Buffalo. Not too concerned with them playing on the road here. Pittsburgh boasts an elite defense of their own and will certainly disrupt Jacksonville at times but they still let up 30 to the Texans and 49ers.
They shouldn't need to score very many points either. This Steelers offense is just plain bad. 31st in total yards per game, 25th in passing, 28th in rushing. Convert just 36.5% of third downs and rank dead last in time of possession. Jacksonville has an Elite run defense, allowing just 80.6 yards per game. They also limit teams to just 3.6 yards per carry. Pittsburgh isn't going to be able to run the football against a very talented Jaguars front 7. Kenny Pickett is going to have to make throws all game long and the Steelers haven't shown they can do that.
The Steelers defense can't bail the offense out of every game. It's pretty remarkable they're 4-2 with the way the offense has played but that won't last forever. They match-up poorly against Jacksonville.
1:00PM EST: NYJ/NYG Under 35.5 (3 Units)
Defense Defense Defense. There may even be too much defense it can threaten to push this over. Both New York defenses are playing very good football right now. The Jets are elite at pretty much every level on defense and just beat the Eagles without both starting Cornerbacks. Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are back today though. They have one of the deepest defensive lines in the NFL and that Giants offensive line is terrible. They let up an average of 5.3 sacks per game, only the Commanders are worse. The Jets don't bring more than 4 pass rushers very often either and still get consistent pressure.
With Saquon healthy the Giants will be running the football early and often. The Jets defense did struggle against the run earlier this season but they absolutely dominated one of the best rushing attacks in football. Philly ran for just 80 yards and Swift averaged just 1.8 yards per carry. The Giants have scored more than 16 points just once this entire season and it came against Arizona.
On the other end the Giants defense gets after it. Martindale blitzes like no other and is very aggressive. The Giants held the Commanders to 7 points last week and Buffalo to 14 IN Buffalo. The Jets offense is not very good. Zach Wilson looks much better this year but he's playing within the system and taking care of the football. He's thrown just 1 interception in the last 4 games. Similar to the Giants, the offensive line is an issue. The Jets lost Tackle Duane Brown earlier this year, then lost their best OL in Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season. Then against Philly Joe Tippman went down with a thigh injury and he'll be out for this game. Tippman was a huge reason for their offensive lines success when NY shuffled everyone around.
It's going to be a tough day for the offenses. As long as their aren't too many back breaking turnovers it's hard to see these offenses sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.