(2 Picks)
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1:00PM EST: Browns +2 (3 Units)
This Browns defense is not just good, it's Elite. They've allowed just 18 points through 3 games, best in the NFL. They shut down the Bengals potent passing attack in week 1 and held the Titans to 26 rushing yards last week. This new look Ravens offense that's trying to keep Lamar in the pocket and throw just isn't it. He has one of the highest completion percentages in the NFL but he's not pushing the ball down field.
They did run him 14 times last week as they tried to beat the Colts but ultimately came up short. That was a rough loss at Home with Gardner Minshew playing QB for an injured Anthony Richardson. That was a Colts defense that had allowed 51 combined points through weeks 1 and 2 and held Baltimore to 19. Browns defense is a totally different animal and they're at Home. The Ravens are also without
Despite Deshaun Watson not playing, still trust the Browns offense. They've played through the run game for years and this season is no exception. They're averaging 160.7 rushing yards per game (4th) and that's a week removed from playing one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is starting at QB. The 5th round pick out of UCLA completed 69.6% of his passes in College last year and played very well in the pre-season. Completing 37 of 58 attempts (63.8%) for 440 yards and a 2 Touchdowns. He graded out as one of the best QB's through the pre-season.
He's also a very good runner. He had 118 carries for 645 yards (5.5 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last year in College. It's something he brings to the table that Deshaun Watson doesn't. Look for some pre-designed runs and plenty of play action rollouts to utilize his speed. This Ravens defense hasn't been too impressive this year as is.
Injuries have plagued Baltimore early this season and it's not letting up. WRs Rashod Bateman and Odell are both out. Starting CB Marlon Humphrey and Edge Odafe Oweh are out. As is back-up Edge David Ojabo. The biggest hit of them all is Offensive Tackle Ronnie Stanley who's doubtful after missing practice Friday. That leaves Myles Garrett on back-ups. The average starter needs help blocking Garrett, let alone a back-up
Cleveland's won each of it's last two home games against the Ravens and we trust their defense to make it 3 straight.
1:00PM EST: Titans +3, Buy it up if you have to. (2 Units)
Both teams are off to uninspiring starts but this is a tough match-up for Cinci. They haven't been able to run the football at all through 3 games, averaging just 69.3 rushing yards per game. They face a Titans run defense that was the best in the NFL last year and currently ranks 5th through 3 games in 2023. They just held the Browns to 78 yards rushing last week. The Bengals will once again be one dimensional this week and it's tough to win football games like that.
Tennessee has a very talented front 7 and they've gotten after the QB this season with 10 sacks through 3 games. The Bengals offensive line ranks 19th according to PFF. Joe's no stranger to playing under pressure during his time in Cinci but it's made it difficult to push the ball downfield this year. They're averaging just 15.3 points per game (28th) and 257 yards per game (31st). They're one of the worst offenses in football and Burrow's still nursing a calf injury. He's just not mobile enough right now.
On the opposite side you have a Bengals run defense that ranks 30th this season. Now they were one of the better groups last season and we don't think they're bottom of the league bad but they haven't been good. It's no secret that the Titans offense runs through Derrick Henry and they should be able to find some success running in this one. Henry has yet to have that Monster week that he seems to have every so often. This could be one of those days.
Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in their one and only home game so far this season. It was also the only game they could run the ball this season. That's no coincidence. With the Bengals run defense struggling the Titans should find ways to score some points here. Mike Vrabel's a quality coach and Tennessee tends to find a way with him at the helm. Getting 3 points at Home is good value.
