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NFL (2 Picks)
8:15PM EST: Buccaneers +3 (4 Units), Baker Mayfield Over 231.5 Passing (2 Units).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been bad all year but they've been exceptionally poor recently. They've allowed 20 or more points in 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10. Only one of those games landed on 20 exactly and it was the Drew Lock led Seahawks. Their pass defense has been exceptionally poor and that's the strength of this Buccaneers offense.
Baker averages 240.6 passing yards per game at Home this season and he's let her rip in each of his last 2 at Raymond James Stadium. He went 22/33 (66.7%) for 309 yards with 2 touchdowns against the Saints and 26/35 (74.3%) for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jaguars. Tampa's scored 20 or more in 4 of their last 5 Home games. The Outlier came against New Orleans when they scored just 13 points. They had 4 turnovers in New Orleans territory that day. Tampa's tied for 8th in giveaways per game and they're also 8th in turnover margin, just an uncharacteristic showing.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is as good a WR duo as there is and Rachaad White's racked up 549 yards receiving out of the backfield. The Eagles do get CB Darius Slay back tonight but he's played 12 games this season. He's not fixing the 3rd ranked passing defense and the Eagles allowed 33, 42, and 34 points in the last 3 games that he played. They're also down starting safety Reed Blankenship and the Safety who would usually fill in for him Sydney Brown. They do have a decent rush defense and TB isn't a running team as is which should force them to throw more often.
Philly's also tied for 24th in giveaways per game while Tampa Bay's 12th in Takeaways per game. That Eagles offense has been out of sync for a while now and it's putting their defense in bad spots. The Eagles are also without AJ Brown tonight and on the road so it's tough to see them figuring out that dysfunction.
Defensively Todd Bowles defense has quietly been one of the best in football. They're the 6th ranked scoring defense and allow just 17.1 points per game at Home. They're 6th in rushing yards allowed per game as well and it's a huge reason they're tied for 2nd in red zone td's allowed per game. The Eagles haven't scored more than 17 points in 3 straight road games, and it only gets tougher in the post-season. Buccaneers should hang around in this one.
