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NFL (2 Picks)
4:30PM EST: Cowboys -7 (4 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys have won all but 1 Home game by double digits this season. The outlier was when they hosted one of the AFC's best, the Detroit Lions. Dak and that potent passing attack grab all the headlines, but Tony Pollard quietly squeaked over 1,000 rushing yards this year. The Green Bay Packers are the 28th ranked rushing defense and have allowed 143.4 rushing yards per game on the road. That's going to be a major factor today.
The strength of this Green Bay defense is its pass rush and secondary. They currently rank 9th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and 9th in sack percentage. They excel in obvious passing situations but despite that they rank 25th in opponent 3rd down percentage. Their weak run defense allows teams to stay ahead of the chains and in 3rd and manageable. Dallas's offense ranks 2nd in 3rd down conversions and they'll live in those manageable situations today. The Packers were also dealt a huge blow when Jaire Alexander got hurt in practice on Wednesday. He's a true 50/50 Game Time Decision but either way the star CB won't be at the top of his game to help stop the 3rd ranked NFL passing attack. The Cowboys are at full strength today.
Offensively Jordan Love has been playing well but this is a step up from what he's seen lately. Going back, they've scored 17 points against the Bears, 33 vs MIN, 33 vs CAR, 20 in a Loss to TB, and 22 in a loss to the NYG. 14 of GB's points against MIN came off of Rookie QB Jaren Hall turnovers in Minnesota territory too. Still, beating up on a MIN team with nothing to play for and the 29th ranked scoring defense doesn't say a whole lot. This isn't some Elite offense and it's still run by a QB in his first year as a starter. We personally don't think this Cowboys defense is as Elite as some would like to believe but they're a very good group and Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn is as good a DC as you can get.
Dallas is still the 5th ranked scoring defense and they're at Home in the Playoffs. It's hard enough to win road games as is, even harder against good defenses, and then you have to deal with a Playoff atmosphere. Jordan Love has never experienced anything like this in his career and that dates back to his College Days. The biggest game of his career was last week, and it was a Home game against a below average Bears team.
The health of this Cowboys team is paramount among the offense and defensive lines. Longtime LT Tyron Smith is good to go, and Defensive Tackle Jonathon Hankins appears back to 100%. The impact of Tyron Smith is obvious, but Hankins might even be more important. The Cowboys have one of the best rub defenses in the NFL when he's healthy. They lost him for the Month of December, but he returned last week and Dallas held Washington to 50 rushing yards. He was a full participant in Friday's practice. Green Bay's also likely to be without RB AJ Dillon. The Thunder to Aaron Jones lightning is listed as Doubtful.
8:00PM EST: Lions -3 (4 Units)
Everyone's loving the Rams at the moment and it's because they've won 6 of their last 7 but they're 2-1 against playoff teams during that span and last week's exhibition game against SF doesn't mean much as both teams rested starters. They could have been watching this post-season from the couch too if not for the Giants Mason Crosby missing a 54-yard FG attempt with time expiring 2 weeks ago.
The Detroit Lions are just a superior team with more Dudes on both sides of the ball and they've proven that all season long. Their offensive line is fully healthy and that's all day 1 starters. They've had to deal with a plethora of injuries throughout the season but they're 100% healthy today and one of the best in the Country when they are. The Rams have the 18th ranked scoring defense and rank 20th in yards allowed per game. They're far from a special group but they still have Aaron Donald. The health of Detroit's OL is incredibly important.
The Rams defense has also been smoked by every Elite offense that they've faced. They've played 5 of the top 9 scoring offenses in the NFL this year. From the top down, Dallas put up 387 Yards / 43 points, SF (Game 1) 365/30, BAL 449/37, PHI 454/23, & NO 339/22. Wouldn't include the Saints or Philly in the Elite offense category this year either. The Detroit Lions are the 5th ranked scoring offense and are 2nd in yards per game. They're also at Home where they average over 30 points per game. They have Weapons all over the field and Rookie TE Sam LaPorta is trending towards playing which is a huge piece for their offense. The Lions offense has moved the ball on everyone barring a couple road game struggles. Their most recent road game was a very controversial 1-Point loss in Dallas.
The Lions defense on the other hand isn't nearly as great. They have been playing better of late but it's far from a strength of this team. They do however rank 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt. Most of the Rams offensive success is directly linked to RB Kyren Williams. The 2nd year back ran for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 12 games this season. They rested him in their final game against SF, but he missed 4 games with an injury earlier this season. The Rams scored 17,20, 3 and 17 points in the 4 games without him. He's proven difficult to slow down but the Lions have the front capable of doing it. The last team that did was the NY Giants and the Rams nearly lost that game. Williams went for 87 yards on 20 carries which is a solid yards per carry average but 28 of those came on 1 run. He averaged 3.1 YPC on 19 of those carries. Like today, that game was also played on the road.
The Playoff atmosphere is going to be nuts in Detroit. This is their first Home Playoff game in 30 years. Google didn't even exist at the time.... This is as highly anticipated a game for NFL fans as there's ever been before and those Lions fans are truly diehard. Years and years of mediocrity and they averaged 64,850 fans per Home game this year with 65,000 seating capacity. Good Luck communicating at the line of scrimmage during any important downs tonight Matthew Stafford.
8:00PM EST: (DET) Jameson Williams Over 35.5 Rec Yards -110 (3 Units)
The Burner and 12th overall pick in 2022 from Alabama has had a slow start to his career for a variety of reasons but he's settled in as an important piece of this Detroit passing attack. He was held out of last weeks game with an ankle issue but he was a full participant in practice all week long and doesn't carry an injury designation going into this game. He's gone over this prop in each of his last 3 games and averaged 53 rec yards per game during that span. He reeled in 2 of 3 targets against Dallas for 69 yards, 5 of 6 vs MIN for 43, and 4 of 7 vs DEN for 47. He's a threat to go all the way anytime he touches the ball and can hit this prop with just 1 catch. With WR Kalif Raymond out and TE Sam LaPorta set to play banged up, he should see ample opportunities. The Rams may also be without starting Safety Jordan Fuller due to an ankle injury. He's listed as questionable but he failed to suit up for any practice. this week. Would make it a little bit easier for Williams to get over the top of the defense is he's out.
