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NFL (1 Pick)
8:00PM EST: Chiefs -4.5 (4 Units)
Miami has struggled on the road and against good teams all season. The Chiefs offense isn't as potent as years past, but this Dolphins defense has been bad and on top of that they're hurting. They lost pass rusher Bradley Chubb to the season during a meaningless play against the Ravens 2 weeks ago. They're without Starting CB Xavier Howard and both starting safeties are questionable after not practicing the entire week. This Miami defense couldn't stop good teams at full strength.
Offensively the Dolphins went on the road 4 times this year against current playoff teams and failed to score more than 20 points in every game. They actually went into arrowhead on November 5th and lost 14-21. Kansas City's defense has allowed more than 21 points just once this entire season and it's easily the best defense of the Mahomes Era.
The Weather will be a major factor today. It's Negative 5 Degrees with over 15MPH Winds and Wind Gusts of nearly 30MPH. Advantage Kansas City. For starters this is cold for everyone, but KC is used to lower temperatures. It's currently 80+ and Sunny in Miami. Mahomes's cannon for an arm will also help mitigate the wind. Tua doesn't have that same arm strength and he won't be able to cut through the wind as easily.
Arrowhead is as hard a stadium to go into as any, especially during the playoffs. Freezing Cold weather or not those fans are going to show up and show out. Mahomes is a more willing runner, and they have a coaching advantage across the board. Andy Reid's a better offensive mind than Mike McDaniels and Steven Spagnuolo is a better defensive coach than Vic Fangio.