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10:00PM EST: SAC/POR Over 237 (3 Units)
The last 10 times these two have played they're 7-3 to the Over. They played earlier this year to a 121-118 final in Overtime, but that game went Over in regulation. That was also in Sacramento and a Portland team without their leading scorer Anfernee Simmons. He's been great since returning, averaging 26.9 points per game over their last 10.
Sacramento is coming off a subpar shooting performance against the Timberwolves, but they averaged 127 points per game in the 5 contests leading up to that. This is a great spot for them to get right back on track. The Trailblazers grade out as an average defensive team but the return of Anfernee Simons changes things. While he certainly helps their offensive output, he's just a plain bad defender. He has a defensive rating of 119.8 this season, the league average floats around 110. He finished last year with a -2.5 in the Defensive Box +/-, 189th out of 190 eligible players. Sure enough their defense has been lacking since he's returned full time. Portland's allowing 122 points per game over their last 8 contests. They've held just 1 team below 118 points and it was a Suns team that's really struggling right now. Sacramento has averaged 123.4 points per game against them Portland in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The Trailblazers offense has averaged 113.5 points per game with Simons healthy. It's nothing spectacular but it it's much higher than their season average of 108 and would put them at league average. The T-Wolves rank 18th in the NBA in points per game at 113.5. The Kings defense they’re up against ranks 21st in defensive rating. They also compete at Home. Going back over their last 7 Home games, 117-118 L to WSH, 109-104 W over PHO, 114-118 L to GSW, 120-131 L to DAL, 114-122 L to UTA, 112-125 L to DAL, and a 121-105 W over UTA. They should keep this game competitive enough to drive it Over late in the game as needed.