CBB
(1 Pick)
9:00PM EST: Marquette Team Total Over 92.5 (2 Units)
Marquette faces off against Southern University tonight in their first Home Game since November 10th. Southern University is nowhere close to Marquette or any high major basketball program. Over the 362 Division 1 basketball programs they'll finish the season 300+. They finished 280th in KenPom's rankings a season ago. They just brought in a new Head Coach and with him an entirely new roster. They aren't just lacking talent but experience and continuity.
They've played on the road in every game this year and against some quality teams. TCU beat them 108-75, Arizona 97-59, and Illinois 88-60. Even Western Illinois scored 88 on this Southern defense. Marquette has one of the best offenses in College Basketball and they're an incredibly veteran team. They're also deep enough to keep scoring as they feature and 8-man rotation. Their bench players would all start on Southern's team too.
Marquette hasn't played since the Maui invitational and in their last 2 games they picked apart Kansas's and Purdue's defense. They lost to #2 Purdue 75-78, but Kansas was ranked #1 when they won 73-59. They shot just 6/25 from 3 against Kansas as well or that's an even bigger blowout. Combined they went just 11/42 (26.2%) from deep in those 2 games. Those are two strong defensive teams, however. Southern is anything but.
Marquette is shooting below where they should be from 3 on the young season and it's really just a couple guys. Kam Jones is shooting 40.5% from 3, Kolek 43.8%, and Joplin 37% (40% last year). It's Sean Jones shooting 14.3% (31.7% last year) and Stevie Mitchell shooting 12.5% (31.1% last year) that's brining the average down. As a team they're shooting 33.1% but they figure to be 2-3 points higher than that by years end.
At Home against a terrible defense, this is a good spot for them to turn it on. They've played two games at Home this year and scored 92 and 95. They shot 22/55 (40%) from beyond the Arc in those games. Northern Illinois and Rider are also better teams than Southern. Marquette big Ighodaro is going to feast down low. One of the best offensive bigs in the College Ranks, he played extremely well against both Kansas and Purdue shooting a combined 17/25 (68%) from the field. When he comes out for rest and the eventual blowout, Ben Gold steps in. Remember his name because when Ighodaro exits this man will be fill the void quite nicely. He's shooting 47.8% from the field but he's capable of knocking down 3's.
Inexperienced sloppy team on the road against one of the most put together and senior teams in the Country tonight. Marquette's first game at Home in nearly 3 weeks and that's a welcome feeling. Like the St. John's pick on Saturday when they returned home from a long absence and blew the doors off.
Marquette is just laying too much to take the spread at -32.5. Hell of a lot of points to give any team and while Southern has shown they can score enough in the past; we also don't trust them to score enough to play the Game Over. One thing is for certain and it's that Marquette is going to have its way against this Southern defense regardless of who's on the floor. They've already gone over this number once and came a point shy from a 2nd time. They've also did it twice in 2 of their early low Division 1 games last year and this Marquette team's improved since then.
Even when the Golden Eagles starters get pulled the minutes become incredibly valuable for the 2nd Unit. They're going to keep playing. At the end of the day there's no experience like game experience and as the season progresses guys get hurt. It's inevitable and you need quality depth. They're also at Home where it's always more fun to put on a show.
