Courtside Players Club (1/9/24)

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CBB

(2 Picks)

8:00PM EST: Texas Tech -8 (4 Units)

The public’s loving Oklahoma State in this one because they just took Baylor into Overtime their last time out, but that game was played at Home. Baylor still won despite shooting just 13.3% from deep in that game. They're the #1 3-PT shooting team in the nation at 45%. Texas Tech is coming off a huge 9-PT win @ Texas. Now they host their first Big-12 Conference Game, and it will be quite the environment coming off the big win.

Matchups wise this Oklahoma State team doesn't do a whole lot well offensively. They rank 152nd in Adjusted offensive efficiency. Their SOS ranks 312th and they've lost to every respectable team to date. They've played 1 true road game this year and lost 68-70 to Southern Illinois of all teams. Texas Tech's defense ranks 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and they've been much better lately compared to earlier this season. They just went into Texas and held them to 41.3% from the floor (they rank 39th in CBB at 48.1%). They also play great defense without fouling, ranking 7th in CBB averaging just 13.5 fouls per game.

The Fouls and FT department is a huge edge for the Red Raiders. It will serve them well if these refs get Foul Happy. Oklahoma State ranks 293rd in FT % while Texas Tech ranks 12th. Tech's also the 9th most efficient team attacking the Rim while the Cowboys rank 332nd in shots allowed at the Rim. Tech ranks 9th in PPP in P&R Ball-Screens and run it 59th most in CBB, Oklahoma State ranks 112th in PPP against that defensively. Tech also ranks 16th in PPP at Catch and Shoot 3-PT and go to it 38th most in CBB. Ok St ranks 246th in PPP defending that.

Just a bad matchup for Oklahoma State. They really struggle offensively and Tech's been playing great defense. While Oklahoma State is 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency, where they struggle to defend is where Tech excels. Oklahoma State also ranks 332nd in transition and Tech doesn't turn the ball over too much. Cowboys aren't going to get many easy points and they'll have to earn their points in the half court against a stout defense.

9:00PM EST: BYU +4.5 (3 Units)

It's a tough first conference road game for BYU but we like them to hang in there. They opened up Big-12 play with a loss at Home against Cincinnati because they struggled to get to the rim against a big physical Bearcats defense but that's not Baylor's game. BYU's actually the 4th most efficient team attacking the Rim, they just couldn't get there. As potent as Baylor is offensively, they're 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that's been Baylor's M.O. in recent years. BYU is 19th in AdjO and they shoot over 37% from beyond the Arc. They're also 1st in assists per game and Assist/Turnover ratio.

They really didn't have Fousseyni Traore available for their game against Cinci. He played just 8 minutes in his first game since returning from injury, but he'll be in line for more work tonight. He's a massive part of this BYU team. He's started 60 of 72 career games for the Cougars and was their leading rebounder in each of their past 2 seasons. He will be again this year and despite standing just 6'6, he's a load at 240 with + athleticism. He was sorely missed against a physical Cinci team.

BYU's defense has been very good, ranking 6th in AdjD. They excel in the 1 area they need to against Baylor and that's defending the 3-PT Line. They rank 1st defensively allowing low-quality 3-PT shots and are 5th in opponent 3-PT FG%. Baylor's also in line for from regression from deep. They only made 2 three-point shots against Oklahoma State last time out but they're still first in CBB shooting 45% from 3. There's been 1 team to finish above 43% from deep in the last 10 years and it was South Dakota State at 43.7% during the 21-22 season and their schedule had a lot to do with it. Baylor only ranks 81st in Open 3-Rate so far this season.

BYU's a very experienced and Veteran team too and that will help on the road. Of their 7 leading players in minutes per game, 6 of them played significant minutes for BYU last season. 4 of them are Seniors, 2 of them are Juniors, and there's 1 Sophomore who started 21 games for them as a Freshman. Big reason why they're 1st in assists and Assist/Turnover Ratio. Baylor's defense just isn't good enough. If Oklahoma State was able to score on them, BYU will be able to as well. Even if Baylor goes nuclear from Deep, BYU will be within striking distance towards the end of this game.