NCAAF
(12/27/22) 10:15 PM Eastern.
Spread: Wisconsin -3 / Oklahoma State +3
Moneyline: Wisconsin -165 / Oklahoma St +135
Total: Over / Under 45
The Pick: Wisconsin -3.
Both teams lost their starting QB to the transfer portal and that’s too big of a loss for an Oklahoma State team that was carried by Spencer Sanders. The Cowboys lost 4 of their final 5 games when Spencer Sanders went down with an injury. Their lone win came when Sanders toughed it out and came in for the 4th quarter against Iowa State and led the team to a comeback victory.
Back-up QB Garret Rangel gets the start against an Elite Badgers defense. He’s completed 53.6% of his passes with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 2 relief appearances. Wisconsin allows an average of just 20.5 points per game (25th best in the FBS) and excel against the run. Holding opponents to just 3 yards per carry (6th). Oklahoma State has struggled to run the football all season too, ranking 91st in the FBS with 131.8 yards per game and starting QB Spencer Sanders accounted for over 25% of the teams total rushing yards. Starting RB Dominic Richardson averaged just 3.6 yards per carry on the season and he just transferred to Baylor. It will be even harder to run for OK St without their dual threat QB as Garret Rangel isn’t nearly as good in the run game as Sanders was. Isn’t much easier through the air as the Badgers defense allows just 202.3 passing yards per game (31st). The Freshman QB Rangel will have to make big time throws and he’s shown ZERO ability to do it.
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On the flip side it certainly hurts to lose a 3-year starter at QB but the Badgers offense goes through the run game. Wisconsin ranked 112th out of 131 with 189.6 passing yards per game with Mertz under center this season. Doesn’t get much worse than that. The uncertainty can be a bonus as Oklahoma State doesn’t know what to prepare for as Wisconsin’s back-up QB’s have played minimal snaps. The Badgers will lean on Sophomore RB Braelon Allen who’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry and facing a weak Cowboys run defense. Oklahoma State allows 171.3 rushing yards per game (95th) and 4.6 yards per carry (Tied 101st). This defense is also down 3 key starters, DL Brendon Evers declared for the NFL draft, DE Trace Ford entered the transfer portal, and the team’s leading tackler Mason Cobb is on his way to USC.
The addition of Head Coach Luke Fickell is a significant one too. Interim HC Jim Leonard is leading the way in this bowl game, but they’ve just added one of College Football’s sharpest defensive minds to their sidelines. Jim Leonard has done a great job filling in as HC and you can guarantee the defense comes out fired up and ready to show out in their final game together.
The Big 10 conference is also much more physical than the Big 12’s. Defense has been optional in the Big 12 over the years while the Big 10 boasts 5 of College Football’s top 11 defenses. That physicality isn’t something Oklahoma State is accustomed to and will play a factor in this game.
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