NCAAF
(9/30/22) 10:30 PM Eastern.
Spread: Washington -3 / UCLA +3
Moneyline: Washington -140 / UCLA +115
Total: Over / Under 66.5
Friday night football features a PAC-12 rivalry between the Washington Huskies and UCLA Bruins. Both teams come into this game 4-0 with PAC-12 title aspirations. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30p.m. eastern time at the Rose Bowl Stadium.
#15 Washington (4-0)
HC Kalen DeBoer and QB Michael Penix have the Huskies off to an impressive 4-0 start in their first year in Washington. They have the #1 scoring offense in the PAC-12, averaging 44 points per game and Penix is the nation’s leading passer, averaging 347 yards per game. He’s also thrown for 12 touchdowns to just 1 interception in the Huskies 4 wins. Third year WR Jalen McMillan has been his favorite target, reeling in 21 passes for 367 yards but Penix has done a good job spreading the wealth, WR Rome Odunze has 293 yards receiving in just 3 games while WR Ja’Lynn Polk has 256 yards and 4 touchdowns. The ground game could be better, they average just 4 yards per carry on the season. Their 162 rushing yards a game ranks 114th in the nation.
The Huskies defense has been opportunistic, they have 6 takeaways in 3 games vs FBS opponents, a large reason for their success. Stanford gained 372 yards of total offense against them last week and averaged 6 yards per play, but 3 takeaways kept the Cardinals score in check. This defense returns just 5 starters from last year and the back end has really struggled, they lost two First Team All-Pac 12 cornerbacks from 2021. They do however have the best pass rush in the Pac-12, they have 15 sacks through 2 games, LB Bralen Trice leads the team with 4 sacks and LB Alphonzo Tuputala has 3. The pressure they’ve caused has led to much of the Huskies takeaways.
UCLA Bruins (4-0)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) has taken a massive leap in his 5th year under Chip Kelly, he’s completed 74.8% of his passes for 896 yards and 8 touchdowns through 4 games with just 1 interception. He’s been lethal on the ground too, rushing for 170 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per carry. UCLA’s rushing attack as a whole has been phenomenal, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt, starting RB Zach Charbonnet is averaging 6.8 ypc. The offensive line has been a major strength for the Bruins, on top of the ground success they also rank 11th per PFF in pass blocking. The Bruins have punted all of 8 times through 4 games.
UCLA’s new look transfer portal led defense has looked great thus far, but they haven’t faced much competition. They rank 9th in the FBS allowing just 4 yards per play. They’ve got a pair of good pass rushers in LB Laiatu Latu (5 sacks) and DL Grayson Murphy (3 sacks). Their coverage unit ranks in the top 35 by PFF’s metrics but they’ll need the help from that strong pass rush to slow down the explosive Huskies offense.
The Pick
UCLA +3. This is Washington’s first road game of the season with a new HC and new QB. The offense has clicked at home but that will change in the hostile confines of the Rose Bowl Stadium in a heated rivalry game. The Huskies have been 1 dimensional this season, averaging just 4 YPC and ranking 114th in the nation in rushing yards per game. UCLA also owns the #1 rushing defense in the PAC-12, allowing 84.3 yards per game. They’ll be forced to throw all night and UCLA owns a solid pass rush, LB Laiatu Latu has 5 sacks and DL Grayson Murhpy has 3. Home field advantage really comes into play here, the crowd noise will hinder the Huskies communication and cause lapses in pass protection. On the flip side the Washington defense hasn’t been that good. It’s a defense that brings back just 5 starters from last year and is currently allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt (104th in the FBS). 5th year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been incredibly efficient, completing 74.8% of his passes to 13 different Bruin players for 896 yards and 8 touchdowns. It’s his running ability that is most threatening to the Huskies, Washington has the best pass rushing front in the PAC-12, but UCLA has the 11th best pass blocking offensive line per PFF and have yet to face a QB as mobile as DRT. He will be able to extend plays and make them pay for abandoning their rush lane integrity. That’s going to lead to big plays against a bad Huskies secondary. UCLA’s rushing attack is actually the best thing about their offense, they rank first in the PAC-12 with 220.5 rushing yards a game. They average 5.7 yards per carry and starting RB Zach Charbonnet is averaging 6.8 ypc. That won’t just slow down the Washington pass rush, it’ll also keep the Huskies offense off the field and out of rhythm and keep the Bruins defense fresh. UCLA has won 7 straight games dating back to last season and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. They’re also 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings vs Washington and 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings vs Washington at home. Washington is also just 1-5 ATS their last 6 road games.
WinMyBets NCAAF Pick: UCLA +3.
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