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Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 11/14/22


NFL

(11/14/22) 8:15 PM Eastern.

Spread: Commanders +11 / Eagles -11

Moneyline: Commanders +400 / Eagles -550

Total: Over / Under 43.5


Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up with an NFC east rivalry between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15p.m. eastern time at Lincoln Financial Field.


Washington Commanders (4-5)


After an abysmal 1-4 start to the season the Commanders have won 3 of it’s last 4. They blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead against the Minnesota Vikings last week or they would be sitting at 5-4. Taylor Heinicke gets the start again tonight with Carson Wentz nursing an injury. He’s 2-1 as Washington’s signal caller and has been solid. Completing 64% of his passes for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 starts. He has thrown an interception in all 3 games, and it proved costly against Minnesota. The 4th quarter INT set MIN up on Washington’s 12-yard line which led to the game tying TD.


It's been a struggle offensively for Washington, they rank 27th in point per game and have struggled to run the football. RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on a combined 156 attempts. Philly’s defense has been vulnerable against the run at times this season but Washington produced a measly 87 rushing yards when they met earlier this season.


The Commanders defense has been winning them games. They haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points in 5 straight weeks and they held this high-powered Philadelphia offense to 24 back in week 3. Trading CB William Jackson proved wise, it drastically improved their pass defense and that’s when their 21 points allowed or less streak started. They rank 3rd in pass rush success rate and are 2nd against the run.


Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)


The Eagles look to keep their unbeaten streak alive at home tonight and the oddsmakers find that likely. Fresh off two double digit wins the Eagles are poised for 9-0. This Eagles offense ranks 2nd at 28.1 points per game and 3rd with 406.9 yards per game. They average the 2nd most rushing attempts per game (34.5) and QB Jalen Hurts dual threat ability is a large reason why. He has 88 rushing attempts and 6 rushing touchdowns through 8 games. He’s also completed 68.2% of his passes for 2,042 yards and 12 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions.


Philly also features one of if not the best defense in the NFL. They allow just 16.9 points per game and have allowed their opponents to score more than 17 points just twice all season. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have formed an elite CB duo, shutting down any receiver that’s come their way. The defense has 25 sacks on the season and are tied for first with 18 takeaways. They have 12 interceptions (2nd) and 6 Fumble recoveries (Tied 7th). Phillies defense held Washington scoreless for 58 minutes in week 3, allowing a late score at the 2 minute warning.


The Pick


WAS/PHI Under 43.5. Washington’s defense matches up very well against Philly. Owning the 2nd best run defense in the NFL, they shut down the Eagles ground game back in week 3. The Eagles run the ball 34.5 times a game (2nd most) and average nearly 150 rushing yards per game. In week 3 the Eagles ran for just 72 yards on 30 attempts. Outside of an explosive 24-point 2nd quarter, the Eagles struggled offensively the entire game. Two of the Eagles 3 touchdowns came on drives that started in WAS territory anyway. The Eagles are still going to run the football tonight and that’s going to milk the clock. Washington’s pass defense is also much better now after trading CB William Jackson away after week 4. They now rank 6th in pass success rate compared to 17th in weeks 1-4 (when Jackson started). WAS also rank 3rd in pressure rate for when Philly is forced the throw. Good news considering Jalen Hurts passer rating drops from 119.6 in a clean pocket to 76.7 when under pressure. On the other side this Washington offense isn’t great, and Philly’s defense is elite. Holding opponents to 17 or less in all but 2 games this season. The Eagles defense hasn’t been nearly as successful vs the run as it has against the pass though. While it’s been a struggle for Washington to run the football, they have no choice but to try and establish the ground game, further milking the clock. Ron Rivera is a defensive minded head coach that’s going to try and shorten this game and take a dog fight into the 4th quarter. With Taylor Heinicke at QB, they stand no chance in a shootout against the #1 pass defense in the NFL. The last two times these two met they combined for 32 and 36, both under the posted total. For WAS the Under is 6-1 L7 Overall, 4-0 L4 division games, and 4-1 L5 road games vs teams with a winning record. For PHI the Under is 8-3 L11 at home vs teams with a losing record and 16-5 L21 games in November.


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