NBA Free Pick at the Bottom
(1/17/23) 7:30 PM Eastern.
Spread: Raptors +4.5 / Bucks -4.5
ML: Raptors +165 / Bucks -195
Total: Over / Under 223.5
Sometimes a team just has your number, and that’s the case with Nick Nurse’s Raptors and Mike Budenholzer’s Bucks. Toronto’s beaten Milwaukee outright in 6 of their last 8 meetings. Even the 2 losses were close, a 3 point and 7 point loss. The last time Milwaukee beat Toronto at home was way back in 2019. The Raptors are a perfect 5-0 ATS their L5 trips to Milwaukee and 5-1 ATS L6 overall vs MIL.
Milwaukee is also banged up. The Greek Freak has missed time a few games with a knee issue recently. That knee has caused him to miss a total of 9 games this season and it’s the same Knee that’s caused him issues in years past. Budenholzer is playing it safe, understanding that the stars health come playoff time is ultimately more important. He was probable last night but held out. There’s a chance he plays tonight but another day off would give him 4 more days of rest before their next game Saturday.
The tremendous workload that saw him average 39 points per game over an 8 game stretch is what caused it. The last 3 games he played before taking off, 12.6 points per game on 34.3% shooting. Even if he does suit up, it won’t be a huge workload. Then there’s Khris Middleton who’s still out. His steady 20 points per game have been sorely missed by this Bucks offense.
Toronto leads the league in turnover creation and turnover avoidance while Milwaukee ranks in the bottom third of turnover rate. Milwaukee is also the worst team in the NBA creating turnovers with just 12.3 takeaways per game. They also lead the league in steals per game and average 5.2 blocks per game. All which play into the Toronto Raptors hands as they’re top 3 in fast break PPG. They defend well, giving up only 1.13 points per possession and rank 6th in paint points allowed per game which spells trouble for a Milwaukee team that ranks 18th in 3-point percentage. This will be yet another close game in a long series of close games. Take the points.
The Pick: Raptors +4.5.
