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Texas A&M vs Alabama NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 10/8/22


(10/8/22) 8:00 PM Eastern.

Spread: Texas A&M +24 / Alabama -24

Total: Over / Under 48.5

Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban meet for the first time since A&M upset the Crimson tide last season. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00p.m. eastern time at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Texas A&M (3-2)

Jimbo Fisher’s bunch is off to a roller coaster ride of a start. They lost an absolute stunner in week 2 to Appalachian State before going on to beat then #13 Miami and #10 Arkansas, but then lost to an unranked Mississippi State last week. Their starting QB Max Johnson broke a bone in his throwing hand during that game as well. Haynes King will start for the Aggies tonight. He was the Starter to open the season but got benched after the loss to Appalachian state. In 3 games he’s 49/64 for 510 yards, 3 TDS, and 4 interceptions. The rushing attack has been good, and they’ll need it tonight, starting RB Devon Achane is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

They do still have a very good defense though. Last week’s box score is a bit misleading; A&M had a blocked FG returned for a TD and Hines threw a pick six. Still, they let up an average of just 17.8 points per game on the young season. They came into this season picked to be one of the best defenses in the country and have largely looked the part. Their pass rush has been a big disappointment, they’ve registered just 6 sacks in 5 games so far this season. They have tightened up when it matters, coming into this week they’re tied for the 11th best red zone defense and have surrendered just 3 redzone touchdowns all year.

Alabama (5-0)

The Tide continues to roll but starting QB Bryce Young left last weeks game against Arkansas and never returned. He has practiced during the week but Saban has him as a game time decision. No matter who’s playing QB, Jahmyr Gibbs and the ground game is going to be effective. Gibbs is averaging an astounding 8.8 yards per carry while back-up RB Jase McClellan is also averaging 7.3. No team has been able to stop the Tide’s rushing attack. They just threw up 317 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on Arkansas last week.

This is the 5th best defense in the country and 2nd best defense in the SEC. #1 Georgia allows 10.8 points per game to Alabama’s 11. The Crimson Tide do rank 1st in the SEC in yards allowed per game at just 236.4. Future top 10 NFL draft pick Will Anderson has continued to make plays. He has 5 sacks so far in 2022 after compiling 15 in 2021. A&M threw up 41 on this defense on them last year, can guarantee the Crimson tide haven’t forgotten.

The Pick

A&M/Bama UNDER 48.5. These are two of the best defenses in the country in a bad blooded rivalry game. A&M allows 17.8 points per game while Alabama lets up just 10.8. Both teams come into this game with questions at QB. A&M starting QB Max Johnson broke a bone in his hand last week, so Haynes King starts today. He was the starter to open the season but was benched after 2 dreadful weeks of QB play. He picked up where he left off in relief of Johnson last week, completing 6 of 13 passes for a measly 46.2 yards and 2 interceptions. For Alabama, Bryce Young hurt his throwing shoulder against Arkansas last week and couldn’t finish the game. He has practiced all week but is still a game time decision. Even if he starts his ability to accurately push the ball downfield will be limited. And backup QB Jalen Milroe isn’t nearly as good a thrower, he struggled in relief of Young last week despite facing on of the worst pass defenses in the country. Both teams strengths are running the football and they’ll lean on that, bleeding this clock. The Under is 4-1 in Alabama’s last 5 home games and 12-5 in the Aggies last 17 road games.

WinMyBets NCAAF Pick: TXA&M/Bama Under 48.5.

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