CBB
(11/29/23) 7:15PM Eastern.
Spread: TN +2 / UNC -2
ML: TN +110 / UNC -130
Over/Under 144.5
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FREE PICK: TN/UNC Over 144.5
Both teams play respectable defense but there's some mismatches to be taken advantage of. The Pace of this game will also favor the offense. The Vols use an average of 15.5 of the 30 second shot clock while North Carolina uses 15.3. The Tarhells have one of the best offenses in the College game and they can do it all. They're great in transition, attack the basket, can play post-up offense with Bacot, and shoot the 3 well. They're a load for any defense to handle and they get theirs one way or the other.
The biggest weakness of the Vols they'll look to exploit is getting to the charity stripe. Tennessee is allowing 22.8 Free Throw attempts per game this year, 278th in CBB. Purdue just shot a remarkable 48 against them but that's the Zach Edey effect. Kansas also shot 22 and Wisconsin had 23 against them earlier this year as well. North Carolina lives at the stripe, their 26.8 FT attempts per game rank 16th in the nation. While they can shoot the 3, they don't do a ton of it. This is a Tarhells offense that attacks the rim all game that's where the Vols have gotten into foul trouble. Nothing better for an Over than points with a stopped clock.
On the flip side the North Carolina defense has held up fine, but it hasn't played too great. UNC ranks 114th in opponent 3-PT % but they're fortunate to be that high. Per Shot Quality they rank 312th in open 3PT shot rate. While the Vols haven't shot it great in their last 2 games, there's reasons for that. Purdue is one of the best perimeter defenses in CBB and Kansas is holding teams below 30% from outside as well. It was also the Maui Invitational. Meaning they played 3 games in 3 days. This early in the season that means tired legs and outside shooting tends to get effected. It happens at the end of the year in Conference Tournament play every year as well. In their 4 games on regular rest, they've combined to shoot 37.5% from beyond the Arc.
Timely 3's and North Carolina getting to the Free Throw line should help push this past the total. This is likely to be a highly competitive game as well. Likely to see the end of game FT attempts as one team tries to remain in it. That added intensity can also lead to more fouls throughout the game.
