NFL
(11/17/22) 8:15 PM Eastern.
Spread: Titans +3.5 / Packers -3.5
Moneyline: Titans +150 / Packers -175
Total: Over / Under 41
Week 11 of the NFL season opens up with the Tennessee Titans heading to Green Bay to face the Packers. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15p.m. eastern time at Lambeu Field.
Titans (6-3)
The Titans grinded out a win against the Denver Broncos last week by the score of 17 to 10. It marked the return of Ryan Tannehill after a 2 game absence and he was needed with Derrick Henry bottled up. Tannehill completed just 52.8% of his passes but he did throw 36 times for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. Henry had nowhere to go, rushing for just 53 yards on 19 carries (2.8 YPC). The 2 weeks prior, Henry averaged 6.8 YPC in each game, going for 115 yards vs KC and 219 vs Houston. Expect plenty of handoffs to Derrick Henry tonight against one of the league’s worst run defenses.
Defensively the Titans continued their impressive campaign. They rank 8th in scoring defense and are particularly stout vs the run. They rank 2nd allowing just 85.1 rushing yards per game and haven’t allowed a RB to go over 35 rushing yards in 3 straight games. They are however awful against the pass. The 272.6 passing yards allowed per game is 2nd behind the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards on this defense a couple weeks ago.
Packers (4-6)
Did the Packers figure something out last week? A look into the numbers shows LaFleur and Rodgers finally committed to the ground game. It was Rodgers first 3 touchdown performance of the season but he threw a season low 20 passes. He handed it off a whopping 37 times to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones ran for 138 yards on 24 carries (5.8 YPC) and Dillon ran for 65 on 13 carries (5.0 YPC). An effective run game and breakout game from Rookie WR Christian Watson propelled the Packers over the Cowboys. Rodgers hit Watson on all 3 of his touchdown passes, 2 of them deep shots for 58 and 39 yards. This is what Green Bay’s front office envisioned when they selected Christian Watson in the first round, a playmaker with game breaking speed. Injuries and early season miscues delayed the inevitable.
Defensively the Packers are 16th in points per game at 21.6 but are the polar opposite of Tennessee’s defense. They excel against the pass but struggle against the run. The 179.7 passing YPG they allow ranks 3rd in the NFL but the 140.6 rushing YPG they allow is 7th worst. Green Bay’s defense has also been fortunate with who they’ve played. Only 3 of their 10 opponents rank higher than 17th in yards per game. The Cowboys had 421 yards of total offense against Green Bay last week but a couple of interceptions by Dak Prescott cost them.
The Pick
TEN/GB Over 41. This Titans offense matches up great against GB and the Packers found something in Christian Watson last week. Green Bay features one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, letting up an average of 140.6 rushing yards per game (26th) and 4.8 yards per carry (5th most). The Titans struggled to run the ball against the leagues #1 scoring defense last week but Henry dominated the 2 weeks prior. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry in both contests; running for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 attempts vs HOU and 115 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 attempts vs KC. The Chiefs own a top 5 rushing defense by the way. Ryan Tannehill is also fully healthy after being removed from the injury report. He’s got his full complement of WR’s and coming off a strong 255-yard 2 touchdown performance against the Broncos defense. For Green Bay the Aaron Rodgers and Christian Watson connection will change this offense. Rodgers has had one of the best deep balls in the NFL since he entered the league but this offense lacked that type of production this year. Not anymore, with Watson fully healthy he came out and showed everyone why he was a first round pick. He has take the top off the defense type of speed and Rodgers connected with him on a couple deep touchdown passes last week. Would have been three but Watson failed to locate one of Rodger’s moonshots in time and the ball just went by his outstretched glove. Rodgers had his first 3 touchdown game of the season last week and all 3 went to Watson. This deep threat also keeps the defense honest and safeties back. It compliments an effective ground game that saw Jones and Dillon combine for 203 yards on 37 carries last week. The Packers offense will continue to roll with the newfound connection for A-Rod and Watson. The Over’s cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two.
Comentarios