NCAAF
(9/2/22) 10:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: TCU -13.5 / Colorado +13.5
Moneyline: TCU -530 / Colorado +400
Total: Over / Under 58.5
The TCU Horned Frogs (5-7 last year) and Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) kickoff their season in Boulder Colorado Friday Night. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00p.m. eastern time at Folsom Field.
TCU
Gary Patterson is out, and Sonny Dykes is in at head coach for the Horned Frogs. Patterson was the 2nd longest tenured HC in College Football when he stepped down in the middle of last year. He was notified they would be making a coaching change at the end of the season and decided to resign instead of being fired. His prior years of success started to fade as he was in the midst of his 2nd losing season in just 3 years. After being the pinnacle of great coaching for so many years his old school style started to clash with the new school college football. Reports came out he had lost the locker room, after incidents in 2018 and 2020 he didn’t have the same support from his players as he once did. This coupled with losing is what ultimately led Patterson out the door.
Sonny Dykes comes over from SMU and gets to work with one of the Big 12’s top offenses from a season ago. An offense that returns a veteran offensive line, tons of talent at WR, and it’s starting QB. Dykes claims he will play all 3 of his QB’s in tonight’s game, which speaks to the talent in the room because Senior QB Duggan has thrown for nearly 6K yards in his career and isn’t a lock for the Job. Junior RB Kendre Miller is poised to take over at RB after Zack Evans transferred to Ole Miss. The 6-foot 220LB Junior amassed 7.4 yards per carry over his first two season when spelling Evans. With an Offensive minded HC and most of it’s talent returning, TCU’s offense is poised for another strong year.
Despite being heralded over the years for it's defensive play, the Horned Frogs defense was just plain awful last year. Joe Gillespie takes over as defensive coordinator and brings with him a 3-3-5 defense. TCU lost a few players but brings back a few key cogs and brought in some help through the transfer portal. Navy LB Johnny Hodgers and Colorado’s standout Safety Mark Perry. Freshman nose tackle Damonic Williams has also made a name for himself throughout spring, earning the starting job. The talent is there for TCU to turn things around quickly on defense.
Colorado
Karl Dorrell is entering year 3 as HC of the Buffaloes squarely on the hot seat. He brough in a new offensive coordinator, Mike Sanford Jr from Minnesota. Sanford has bounced around quite a bit in his career, never doing much with his opportunities. He takes over one of the worst offenses in College Football. Ranking outside the top 100 in most major offensive categories. They have a lot of new faces on offense, they return less than 60% of their rushing and receiving yards from last season. Brendan Lewis and J.T. Shrout will both see time at QB tonight.
Defensvilily Colorado returns just 42% of it’s snaps from last year. Their front 7 projects to be and needs to be the strength of their defense because 3 of the 4 starters in the secondary will be new faces. 4 out of 5 when they move into sub packages. Chris Wilson was promoted to Defensive Coordinator and brings in a 4-3 defensive scheme. If Colorado’s front 4 can’t get home, it will be a long season for the young guys on the back end.
The Pick
Take TCU -13.5 tonight. Despite under performing last year this roster is still very talented. What was a top offense in the Big 12 last year stands to get even better with Sonny Dykes taking over at head coach. TCU also returns 82% of its snaps among the offensive line from 2021 which will help keep Colorado’s front 4 in check. Time to throw, quality QB play, and a stacked WR room is bad news for a young secondary. I also expect TCU’s defense to turn it around pretty quickly under Joe Gillespie. Former TCU HC Gary Patterson knew how to coach and call a defense, but he lost the support from the locker room. The defense didn’t buy in, and you could see a lack of effort from TCU’s defense in 2021. With some fresh talent and renewed sense of passion I see a very talented defensive roster performing up to standard. Offensively Colorado is the perfect tune-up too, they scored more than 17 points just 4 times last season and ranked outside the top 100 in most major offensive categories. Not exactly a tall order for TCU’s first test. I also see the high-altitude becoming a factor. Defense’s fatigue late in games early in the season as it is but the thin Mountain air is an absolute nightmare for players. This is a Colorado defense that surrendered over 178 rushing yards per game last year and a TCU offense that ran for over 194. TCU will control this game and you’ll see some big chunk plays late in the game as the Buffaloes gas out.
