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Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs NBA Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction (11/17/23)


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(11/17/23) 7:30PM Eastern.

Spread: Kings -8.5 / Spurs +8.5.

ML: SAC -330 / SAS +260

Over/Under 238.

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Free Pick: Kings -8.5.

With Da'Aaron Fox on the floor the Kings are 4-1 and average 128.2 points per game. He's been the catalyst for the SAC offense that exploded onto the scene last year. Since the start of last season the Kings offensive rating goes from 122.5 with him on as opposed to 114.6 with him off the court. He also provides a boost to the defense, leading to a 6.76 drop to opponent offensive rating. He'll be in the lineup tonight.

Match-up wise this is a nightmare for San Antonio. They rank dead last on defense by pretty much every stat or advanced metric out there. They're letting up 124.1 points per game (last) and the best they've done is hold a team to 114 points. The Kings had the #1 scoring offense in the NBA last year and the 128.2 points per game they average with a healthy Fox would rank 1st as a team this year. He's just played in half their games this season so they rank 10th instead. It's difficult to see the Spurs holding SAC below 120.

As far as offensive production goes for San Antonio, they're in trouble tonight. Rookie Wembanyama will get his buckets but their 2nd leading scorer Devin Vassell is out of this game. So is their 6th man, Tre Jones. He helps facilitate offense with the 2nd unit and leads the Spurs averaging 6 assists per game. The Spurs only average 110.6 points per game as it is, 22nd in the NBA. San Antonio is also averaging just 107 points per game in the midst of their 6 game losing streak. They're 1-5 ATS in that time and it's hard to see them turning it around tonight. The Fox led Kings score on everybody and the Spurs just don't have the firepower to keep up.


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