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2 Picks...
MLB
1:05PM EST: (TOR) Vlad Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Bases +150 (2 Units).
Good buy low spot on a player that's "struggling" with a bad matchup on paper. Vlad's hitting just .208 and slugging .333 this season but he does have an OBP of .367 so he's still seeing the ball well. His xBA is .276 and xSLG is .552 because he records a Hard Hit 70.6% of the time. A "Hard Hit" ball is a ball hit with an Exit Velo 95MPH+. Hard Hit balls have a Batting Average North of .500 and a SLG % above 1.000 every year. For reference last year’s Hard Hit % leader was Aaron Judge at 64.2% with Matt Chapman 2nd at 56.4%. Vlad boasts a career .283 BA and .587 SLG at Yankees stadium and is 2 for 3 off Yankees starter Marcus Stroman. Stroman's making his first career Home Start for the Yankees but has a 6.06 ERA at Yankees stadium in 11 career starts.
4:10PM EST: (COL) Elehuris Montero Over 1.5 Bases +105 (3 Units).
Montero's currently among the unluckiest hitters in baseball with the 5th largest negative differential between wOBA and xwOBA. He's played in 5 games, recording 7 Hard Hit balls and all of them Outs. His Hard Hit % is at 54.5 and his K % 17.6 (36.2% in 2023). His xBA is .260 and xSLG .569. He's going to get rewarded eventually and it's the Rockies Home Opener at the most hitter friendly ballpark in the MLB. Great Weather with 25+ MPH Winds blowing out will make the ball fly. The game total's set at 13 for a reason.
