NFL
(11/28/22) 8:15 PM Eastern.
Spread: Steelers +2.5 / Colts -2.5
Moneyline: Steelers +120 / Colts -140
Total: Over / Under 39.5.
The Pick
Steelers/Colts Under 39.5. Strong matchups for the defenses tonight. The Colts got back to running the football when Jeff Saturday came in as head coach but that success came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NFL vs the run. Tonight, they’re up against a Steelers defense that ranks 6th in rushing yards allowed per game at 103.4 and in their last 3 games they’ve allowed an average of just 67.3. This will force the Colts into obvious passing downs where they’ve struggled to keep the immobile Matt Ryan upright all season. With T.J. Watt back rushing the passer, the Colts 31st ranked scoring offense will continue to struggle. Similar story on the other side, the Steelers recent success has come from Najee Harris’s 2 best games of the year. But tonight, the Steelers rushing attack goes up against a Colts defense that ranks 5th in run stop win rate. The Steelers also average just 17 points per game (28th). The Indianapolis’s defense has held their opponents to 20 or less in 7 of their 11 games this season and just held the Eagles high flying offense to 17. Both offenses will be forced out of their comfort zones and will struggle because of it. The Under is 4-1 the L5 times these two have met in Indy. For Pittsburgh the Under is 6-0 after allowing 30 or more in their previous game, 6-1 following an ATS Loss, 19-7 L26 road games vs teams with a losing record, and 47-20 L67 road games. For Indianapolis the Under is 14-2 their L16 overall, 7-1 following an ATS Win, 6-1 L7 home games, and 11-2 L13 vs the AFC.
