Pick of the Week: Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans — Thursday, August 20, 2026
8:00 PM ET
Spread: LV +1.5 / HOU -1.5
ML: LV -105 / CIN -115
Over/Under: 38.5
Pick of the Week: Raiders +1.5
History likes a small underdog in this spot. Since 2015, underdogs getting +1 to +3 points have covered at a 59.7% clip (190-128), and the number climbs even higher for true road underdogs: teams getting +2.5 points or less away from home have covered 66.1% of the time (84-43) over that same span. Raiders +1.5 as true road underdogs fit squarely inside that range.
Preseason football is exactly the kind of setting where a number like this holds up best. Team quality, home-field advantage, and recent form all carry far less weight when neither roster resembles what will actually take the field in Week 1 of the regular season, which strips the handicapping down to a simpler question: does the price itself offer value? A spread this size, in this range, has been a profitable target for years regardless of who's under center.
Neither roster will look like a real NFL team Thursday. Houston is again resting most of its starters, with Stroud in line for only a handful of snaps at most, while Las Vegas leans on rookie Fernando Mendoza and the second-team offense just as it did in the opener. With both sides fielding backups, there's not much to read into beyond the numbers, and that's fine, because this pick was never about the personnel.
Bottom Line: No need to overthink this one. Small underdogs cover near a 60% clip, and road underdogs of 2.5 points or less do even better. Lean Raiders +1.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
