Pick of the Week: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — Monday, September 14, 2026
8:15 PM ET
Spread: DEN +2.5 / KC -2.5
ML: DEN +110 / KC -130
Over/Under: 42.5
Pick of the Week: Chiefs -2.5
Patrick Mahomes is back, and history says that's still a massive problem for Denver specifically. Mahomes is 13-2 for his career against the Broncos, including several blowout wins. He's been a full participant in camp all summer after tearing his ACL and LCL last December, and Andy Reid has said there's a good chance he starts barring anything unexpected before kickoff. A quarterback with that kind of history against this exact opponent, fully cleared and getting a normal week of prep, is a real advantage regardless of the layoff.
He's also not walking into a rebuilt offense. Travis Kelce is back for his 14th season off a year in which he broke the franchise's all-time touchdown record, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy give Mahomes two more established targets, and Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III to beef up the run game. This is a group with real continuity, not one that needs time to gel in Week 1.
The setting matters too: this is the season opener, on Monday Night Football, at Arrowhead, with a Chiefs team that missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 last year and has every reason to come out with something to prove. Denver is a legitimately good team, and its defense (a franchise-record 68 sacks last season) makes this a real game. But a proven quarterback with a dominant track record against this opponent, a deep and healthy set of weapons, and a loud home crowd on a short number is a combination worth backing.
Bottom Line: Mahomes returns healthy with his full arsenal intact and a near-perfect career record against Denver, at home, in a spot Kansas City should be fired up for. Lean Chiefs -2.5.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
