Pick of the Week: Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams — Monday, October 12, 2026
8:15 PM ET
Spread: BUF +3 / LAR -3
ML: BUF +145 / LAR -175
Over/Under: 54.5
Pick of the Week: Rams -3
Buffalo's defense has been the weak link all season, and last week it finally cost the Bills. They gave up 29 points in a home loss to New England as 6.5-point favorites, and that wasn't an outlier. Buffalo has also allowed 31 points to both Houston and Detroit, and its 26.8 points allowed per game ranks 25th in the league. The advanced numbers are even worse: the Bills sit 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate, with only Detroit and Dallas grading out lower. The unit may be even thinner on Monday, as defensive tackle Ed Oliver (knee) missed practice Thursday and Friday and slot cornerback Dee Alford (ankle) sat out Friday. Buffalo's offense could also be without wide receiver DJ Moore (shoulder), who missed Friday's practice as well.
That's a dangerous spot against a Rams offense that just got its best weapon back. Puka Nacua returned from a two-game absence last week and caught nine passes for 125 yards, 97 of which came after halftime as the Rams rallied from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to win in Philadelphia. Now off the injury report entirely, Nacua gives reigning MVP Matthew Stafford his full arsenal at home for the first time since Week 1. Los Angeles has piled up 1,668 total yards through four games, more than 400 per game, and now draws one of the league's softest defenses.
The gap on the other side of the ball is just as stark. The Rams' defense ranks third in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate while allowing just 4.2 yards per play, and in last week's win it held Philadelphia to 172 total yards and only 68 passing yards. Los Angeles also boasts a top-10 run defense, a key edge against a Buffalo offense that leans on its ground game, and both Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson are trending toward returning after sitting out Week 4.
Bottom Line: The Rams bring a top-three defense and a fully healthy passing attack home against a Buffalo defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Lean Rams -3.
Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
