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Ohio vs Miami(OH) NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 11/8/22


(11/8/22) 7:30 PM Eastern.

Spread: Ohio -2.5 / Miami (OH) +2.5

Moneyline: Ohio -135 / Miami (OH) +115.

Total: Over / Under 52

MAC Conference play resumes on Tuesday night with Ohio taking on Miami in reversed rolls from pre-season projections. It was Miami that was projected to win the division but they’re currently 2-3 in Conference while Ohio sits in 1st place at 4-1. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30p.m. eastern time at Yager Stadium.

Ohio Bobcats (6-3)

Ohio is the surprise story out of the East. With 16-1 odds to win the conference, nobody expected them to control 1st place 9 weeks into the season. Junior QB Kurtis Rourke is having a breakout season, completing 68.5% of his passes for 2,725 yards and 21 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions. He’s coming off a monster game last week (exactly as WinMyBets predicted) in which he threw for 317 yards on 20/29 passing for 5 touchdowns. It’s worth noting this team is a perfect 5-0 at home but just 1-3 on the road. 2 of those 3 losses came against Power 5 teams: Penn State and Iowa State.

The stellar QB play has overshadowed what’s been an abysmal year defensively. In the MAC they rank dead last in total yards allowed per game (481.9), last in passing yards allowed per game (324.2), and 6th in rushing yards allowed per game. They’re also tied for 2nd worst in scoring defense, allowing 33.2 points per game. They’ve been better lately, allowing 24, 17, and 14 in their last 3 games.

Miami (OH) Redhawks (4-5)

It’s been a disappointing season for the Redhawks. Favorites to come out of the MAC’s East division but failing to deliver. Much of their failures come from losing ALL-MAC QB Brett Gabbert in the 1st week of the season. He’s a 4-year starter for Miami but the good news is that he’s back. He ultimately missed 5 games and has played in each of Miami’s last 2. They’ve leaned on a strong rushing attack in his absence, averaging 150.2 rushing yards per game.

They have the #1 scoring defense in the MAC Conference. They allow an average of 21.4 points per game. They rank 2nd in Total yards allowed (348.0), 1st in rushing (107.8) and 7th in passing (240.2). They haven’t faced much competition, most of their in-conference games came against porous offenses.

The Pick

Ohio vs Miami (OH) Over 52. This Ohio offense is on fire behind Junior QB Kurtis Rourke. Ohio ranks 1st in the conference in yards per game and 2nd in scoring with 33.4 points per game. While the opposing Redhawks defense looks good on paper, their stats are misleading. 4 of their 5 conference games came against teams ranked in the bottom half of yards per game. Kent State being the outlier (2nd) and they put up 415 yards of total offense. It’s also just a mismatch, Miami is strong vs the run but weak against the Pass. Despite trailing in most games, they rank 7th in the conference in passing yards allowed. Rourke and Ohio own the #1 passing attack in the MAC. On the Flip side the Ohio defense is outright bad. They rank dead last, allowing 481.9 yards per game and are tied for 2nd worst allowing 33.2 points per game. While Miami’s offense has struggled, most of that’s come without their ALL-MAC 4th year starting QB Brett Gabbert. The good news is that he’s back, having played in the last 2 games after missing 5 weeks. This is the perfect spot for him to regain form, he’s rested off a bye and playing at home against a team he picked apart last season. In their 33-35 loss to Ohio last season, Gabbert threw for 492 yards and 5 touchdowns on 32/55 throwing. This Ohio defense is considerably worse in just about every major statistical category than last seasons too. Fireworks tonight.

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